Edison Research/EIN Exit Poll Estimates of the Distribution of Seats by Party List for the Next Iraqi Parliament
May 1, 2014
Estimates based upon preliminary results from an exit poll for the Iraqi Parliamentary election conducted on April 30th by Edison Research and EIN show that the State of Law Party led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be the largest party in the next Iraqi Parliament and likely to receive at least 70 seats. The exit poll was conducted in 17 of the 18 governorates with data from 61,667 voters interviewed at 324 sample polling locations.
These estimates are for 273 of the 328 seats in the Iraqi Parliament. The remaining 55 additional seats have not yet been allocated based upon the survey including the 15 parliamentary seats from Anbar Province where security issues made it impossible to conduct any exit polling. Once the seats from Anbar are allocated the number of seats for the predominantly Sunni parties will increase.
Exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations. These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.
In addition to the 15 undetermined parliamentary seats in Anbar there are an additional 40 seats that remain undetermined due to the margin of error related to sampling. These additional undetermined seats will be allocated to the party list based on the modified Sainte-Laguë seat allocation method.
The estimate of seats for each party in the Iraqi Parliament based upon the exit poll are as follows:
|State of Law led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (Party List #277)||70|
|Al-Ahrar consisting of followers of Muqtada al-Sadr (Party List #214)||36|
|Al-Muwatin led by Ammar al-Hakkim (Party List #273)||36|
|Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (Party List #213)||18|
|Matahidoun led by parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi (Party List #259)||17|
|Al-Watiniya led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi (Party List #239)||16|
|National Reform Alliance (Jaafari) (Party List #205)||14|
|Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) (Party List #266)||14|
|Gorran (Movement for Change) (Party List #234)||13|
|Al-Arabiya led by Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq (Party List #255)||10|
|Al-Fadiylah (Party List #219)||8|
|Civic Democratic Alliance (Party List #232)||5|
|Iraq coalition (Party List #262)||4|
|Diala Hawyatna (Party List #246)||4|
|Seats allocated to minorities||8|
|Undetermined seats from Anbar||15|
|Other Undetermined seats||40|
|Total seats in Parliament||328|
Edison Research and EIN (The Iraqi Election Information Network) conducted this exit poll on April 30, 2014.
The exit poll was conducted at 324 polling locations among 61,667 voters in all provinces of Iraq with the exception of Anbar. Exit polling in Anbar was disrupted due to security issues that made it impossible to conduct any exit polling. Exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad, and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations. These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.
The polling locations are a probability sample within each Iraqi province. Within each polling location an interviewer approached every nth voter as he or she exited the polling location. The exact number of interviews conducted at each location depends on voter turnout and their cooperation.
Iraq parliamentary seats are allocated based on the Iraqi modified Sainte-Laguë method. Seat estimates from the exit poll are calculated for each party and are based on this approach. All samples are approximations. A measure of the approximation is called the sampling error. Sampling error is affected by the design of the sample and the number of people interviewed. Due to sampling error the overall parliamentary seat estimates, using this approach, differ by no more than +/- 2 (based on a 95% interval) for most parties. This means that 95 percent of the intervals created this way will contain the value that would be obtained if all voters were interviewed using the same procedures. Other non-sampling factors are likely to increase the total error.
About Edison Research
Since its founding in 1994, Edison Research has conducted over 11,000 research assignments in 38 countries. Edison works with a broad array of commercial clients, governments and NGOs, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Gulf News, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, St Jude Children’s Hospital, Time Warner and Yahoo!.
Since 2003, Edison Research has been the sole provider in the United States of exit poll information to ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press, having conducted exit polls and collected precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election. Edison has also conducted exit polls in Azerbaijan, the Republic of Georgia, Cyprus and Venezuela.
Working with both government and commercial clients, Edison has broad experience in the Middle East and Africa. Edison has conducted research projects in Bahrain, Chad, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, Senegal, Tunisia and the UAE interviewing more than 150,000 people in the region since 2004.
About EIN Iraq
EIN Iraq is an Iraqi non-partisan, non-governmental organization formed in 2004 to
promote a free and fair democratic process in Iraq. It also serves as a network for Iraqi civic groups to participate in the democratic process. EIN has regional offices throughout Iraq, and its board of directors includes leaders from Iraq’s Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni communities.
EIN has received support from many in the international community and in particular the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the United Nations, and the European Union. However, it’s most valuable support comes from the thousands of Iraqi people who have provided their time and risked their safety to ensure a fair, transparent, and honorable electoral process.
EIN participated in monitoring the Iraqi elections of 2005, the referendum of the constitution in same year, and the 2010 parliamentary elections in addition to the provincial council elections.
For the 2014 elections, EIN is conducting an exit poll in partnership with Edison Research. In addition, EIN will be providing election observers throughout Iraq.
In the name of transparency, you should include links not just to your website, but to the methodology for carrying out the survey, the methodology for calculating seat allocation (which I assume was done in accordance to the Iraqi elections law – i.e., by province), margin of error, etc. While 62,000 voters were interviewed – giving the appearance of a large sample – 324 is less than 1% of the polling stations in Iraq (between .63% and .68%, depending on how you count (inclusive or not of SNV, IDP, and OCV)) – which does not seem to be a sample large enough to be representative at the provincial level (on average, 19 per province). I also searched your site and could not find any other information besides this page. This undermines the credibility of the poll (leaving aside the difficulties associated with exit polling).
Thank you for your comment. This preliminary post has now been updated with our full methodology statement. Also, it’s worth noting that the sample size we used for Iraq is of a similar size to the one we used in the 2012 National Exit Poll in America.