Edison Research Exit Poll in the Republic of Georgia Conducted for Imedi and Rustavi 2

Republic of Georgia Parliamentary Election October 1, 2012

Final results from an exit poll conducted by Edison Research shows the opposition Georgian Dream with a lead over the United National Movement in the Parliamentary elections in the Republic of Georgia on October 1, 2012.  Edison conducted the exit poll on behalf of television networks Imedi and Rustavi 2.

The final results are based upon 10,485 interviews of Georgian voters conducted throughout the day at 75 randomly selected polling locations throughout the country. The response rate for this exit poll was 66%, and the margin of error is +/- 2%.

The exit poll estimate for the Parliamentary vote by party is:

Georgian Dream 51%
United National Movement 40%
Christian Democrats 5%
Other parties combined 4%

The exit poll shows the Georgian Dream slate performing strongly among voters in Tbilisi, among voters who had made up their mind in the past week, and among more University-educated voters. The United National Movement is doing better among voters outside Tbilisi and among voters who did not graduate from University.

It is important to note that the exit poll estimates the party vote for the proportional seats in parliament. Georgian Dream’s lead in the nationwide vote may or may not translate into a majority of seats in the parliament. Georgian Dream is certain to sweep the ten seats available in Tbilisi but the United National Movement has a small lead outside of Tbilisi and could win more parliamentary districts outside of the capital.

In 2010, Edison successfully performed an exit poll of the Tbilisi Mayor’s race. This exit poll correctly projected the order of finish in the five-candidate race, and the average error on the estimate for each candidate was less than two percentage points.

Edison has been conducting exit polls since 1996 and its principals have been involved in exit polls since 1988. Since 2003, Edison has been the sole provider of exit polls in the USA to the National Election Pool consisting of ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC and the Associated Press. In addition, Edison has conducted or consulted for exit polls in Russia, Mexico, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and Azerbaijan.

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