A few weeks back I posted a datapoint from Iowa showing that Ron Paul was getting a disproportionate share of those voters who are “Angry” at President Bush (as opposed to merely dissatisfied, or positive). One of John McCain’s remarkable feats in Florida was to pull from both those who were positive about the Bush […]
Tom Webster
A great breakdown of some of our exit polling data from the recent Florida Primaries can be found in Marc Caputo’s article in the Miami Herald from Wednesday. Caputo notes the impact of Governor Crist’s endorsement of McCain, and also the three-way split of the evangelical vote in the Republican Primary (more on that in […]
Tom Webster
On Tuesday, January 29th, Edison Media Research successfully conducted exit polls at precincts all across Florida, surveying over 3000 respondents at Republican and Democratic primaries statewide to identify voter demographics, important issues and candidate preference. The Republican primary was won by John McCain, while the Democratic primary was won by Hillary Clinton. Because Florida moved […]
Tom Webster
Most of the post-exit poll analysis focuses on the big issues, and in South Carolina the primary issue was still the economy. Hundreds of thousands of South Carolinians are feeling the pinch on their pocketbooks, and over half of the voters we surveyed in last Saturday’s Democratic Primary indicated that the state of our economy […]
Tom Webster
An interesting study in momentum: one of the questions we ask in the exit polls is “When did you finally decide whom to vote for in the presidential primary?” As this graph shows, there were plenty of minds made up in the last three days prior to the contest. Reports of the Fred Thompson “surge” […]
Tom Webster
On Saturday, January 19th, Edison Media Research successfully conducted entrance polls of the Nevada Caucuses and exit polled the South Carolina Republican Primary on behalf of the major television news networks and the Associated Press. Edison’s trained staff of interviewers polled 1655 respondents in South Carolina and 1931 respondents in Nevada to identify voting preference, […]
Tom Webster
Last week, I noted that the Edison exit polls indicate evidence of a generational split among Michigan’s African-American primary voters in their support for the Democratic candidates; younger African-American voters went decidedly for ‘uncommitted’ as a probable proxy for Barack Obama, while older African-American voters were somewhat more inclined to support Hillary Clinton. It will […]
Tom Webster
Mitt Romney’s win over John McCain and Mike Huckabee in Tuesday’s Michigan Republican primary election received the most attention in the press. The Democratic primary election was largely overlooked, since it was uncontested–Barack Obama and John Edwards had requested that their names be removed from the Democratic party’s ballot. Hillary Clinton’s name was the only […]
Tom Webster
So far we have asked Republican voters in three states what they felt was the most important issue of this year’s election. The results over time present a different take on “consumer confidence:” Admittedly, Michigan may be a bit of an outlier due to the condition of their state’s economy, but if this trend continues […]
Tom Webster
In his take on what happened to the New Hampshire pre-election polls, Marc Ambinder gives us a theory of a different sort, and also conjures up our first Bea Arthur reference of the 2008 election.
Tom Webster
The nearly final turnout numbers from New Hampshire show 287,849 total voters in the Democratic primary and 238,909 total voters in the Republican primary. The Democratic Primary turnout beats the 2004 record by almost 70,000 and the Republican Primary turnout just edged the Republican turnout in 2000 by a few hundred votes. Combined, it beats […]
Tom Webster
On January 8th, Edison Media Research conducted successful exit polls of the New Hampshire Democratic and Republican Primaries. Edison interviewers sampled a universe of over 510,000 voters, the largest turnout in the history of the New Hampshire Primaries. Edison’s exit polling provided valuable information to our news media clients and to the public about the […]
Tom Webster