Lunchtime Webinar Series: Portents for November

Edison Research President Larry Rosin presented the second installment in our Lunchtime Webinar Series, Portents for November: A Review of the Edison Research Democratic Primary Exit Polls, on April 16, 2020.

Since 2004, The National Election Pool (NEP) and Edison Research have conducted the only national exit polls in the United States. The NEP is the source for projections and analysis for every midterm election, presidential primary, and presidential election in the United States.

In this webinar, Larry examines the Democratic Primary electorate through findings of exit polls (37,001 in-person interviews) conducted by Edison Research across America. He discusses what we can learn from who voted, which issues mattered to these voters, and what motivated their decisions. He also tackles the question of how exit poll results could indicate what we might see in the Presidential election this November.

A recording of the webinar is now available for viewing:

Click here to download a copy of Edison Research Portents for November .

Click here for more information on Edison Research and exit polls. 

Lunchtime Webinar Series: Inside the Infinite Dial

Yesterday we presented Edison Research’s first installment in our Lunchtime Webinar Series, Inside the Infinite Dial: How Edison Research Leverages Original Research Into Award-Winning Thought Leadership. Edison Research SVP Tom Webster gave attendees a look behind the curtain at the evolution of The Infinite Dial through a content marketing lens.

The complete webinar is now available for viewing below.

Please join us on April 16th at 1pm for our next Lunchtime Webinar where Edison Research President Larry Rosin will present Portents for November: A Review of the Edison Research Democratic Primary Exit Polls. Registration link will be available soon at www.edisonresearch.com and on Twitter at @edisonresearch.

March 10th: Another Good Night for Joe Biden

By Sarah Dutton 

Joe Biden won a large share of the delegates at stake in the March 10 primaries, besting Bernie Sanders in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Idaho. North Dakota went to Sanders. (At the time of this writing, Biden and Sanders were neck and neck in Washington.) Here are some takeaways from the Edison exit poll data in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Washington that help explain why Biden did so well.  

Michigan 

In Michigan, which Bernie Sanders won four years ago, Sanders’ support was down among many demographic groups compared to 2016. In 2016, he won among men, white voters, white voters without a college degree and union households – all groups he lost to Biden this year. And Sanders’ support was down this year among women, voters age 45 and older, and moderates (groups he lost in 2016 and 2020).  

Mississippi 

Large turnout in Mississippi, where nearly seven in ten voters were African American and 87% of them voted for Biden, powered his huge win there. 74% of black voters want to see a return to the policies of Barack Obama.

Sanders was unable to win over many black voters in Michigan (27%) or Missouri (24%) either. 

Missouri 

In Missouri, turnout among voters 65 and over rose from 22% to 31%, and Biden won them by a large margin, 81% to 14% for Sanders. Across all age groups, Sanders’ support was down this year compared to 2016, but especially so among older voters.

Sanders lost among both men and women here; in 2016, he won among men.

 Washington 

In Washington, where 81% are very or somewhat concerned about the Coronavirus, Biden is seen as the best candidate to handle a major crisis – 44% chose him, versus 27% for Sanders. (Biden came out on top in this measure in Michigan too, 50% to 31%.) 

Washington’s primary voters were primarily white. Biden won among whites both with (32% vs 26%) and without (37% vs. 34%) a college education.

 

Candidate Supporters 

The Edison exit poll data clearly demonstrate the excitement many Sanders’ supporters feel about his candidacy.  In Michigan, Missouri and Washington, more than four in five Sanders voters would be enthusiastic about him as the party’s nominee.

But Joe Biden currently leads in the all-important delegate count. How will Sanders’ supporters feel if their candidate is not the nominee? Few Sanders voters in these three states would be enthusiastic about Biden as the Democratic candidate, and just about a fifth will be upset. 

But as was the case on Super Tuesday, large majorities of Sanders voters in all three states say they will vote for the Democratic nominee in November, no matter which candidate wins the nomination.

 

The Infinite Dial 2020

Monthly Podcast Listening Now at 37%  

The Click here to download The Infinite Dial® 2020 U.S. from Edison Research and Triton Digital

Scroll down to view The Infinite Dial® 2020 webinar.

More than one-third of Americans age 12 and over (104 Million) are consuming podcasts regularly, up significantly from 2019, according to The Infinite Dial 2020® from Edison Research and Triton Digital.

Podcasting awareness and consumption in the U.S. continue to rise, according to the most recent information from the Infinite Dial 2020® from Edison Research and Triton Digital. Seventy-five percent of Americans age 12+ (approximately 212 million peopleare now familiar with podcasting, up from 70% in 2019, and 37% (104 million) listen monthly, up from 32% in 2019. This continues the growth trend that The Infinite Dial® has measured since 2009.

Podcasts now reach over 100 million Americans every month,” said Tom Webster, SVP of Edison Research, “and are attracting an increasingly diverse audience. Also, with 62% of Americans now saying they have used some kind of voice assistance technology, audio is becoming a bigger part of our everyday lives.”

In addition, the Infinite Dial® also found that 62% of those in the U.S. age 12+ use voice-operated assistants, and 45% of those in the U.S. age 12+ have listened to audio in a car through a cell phone. This year’s study also continues the legacy of measuring developing technologies, with the finding that 18% of Americans age 18+ own a car with an in-dash information and entertainment system.  

“We are proud to once again unveil the latest insights and trends around media usage and consumption in the U.S.,” said John Rosso, President of Market Development at Triton Digital.  “The study findings provide Advertisers and the industry at large with valuable insight into the ongoing evolution of devices, content, and formats that Americans use to consume news and entertainment.” 

Other findings include: 

  • Growth in smart speaker ownership as a result of multiple devices in households. In 2020, smart speaker households owned an average of 2.2 of the devices, up from an average of 1.7 just two years ago.  
  • Fully thirty-nine percent of men and 36% of women age 12+ in the U.S. are monthly podcast listeners, which is more balanced than the 36% of men and 29% of women who were monthly listeners in the 2019 study. 
     
  • Thirty-two percent of those in the U.S. age 12-34 use Facebook most often, down from 58% five years ago. Twenty-seven percent of those in the U.S. age 12-34 use Instagram most often, up from 15% five years ago.  

The Infinite Dial® 2020 marks the latest report in a series dating back 22 years, covering consumer usage of media and technology while also tracking new mediums as they develop. This current report provides the most up-to-date research in the U.S. digital audio and podcast consumption, in addition to mobile, smart speaker, and social media usage. 

The Infinite Dial® study uses the gold standard of nationally representative survey research—a random probability telephone sample comprised of both mobile phones and landlines— of all Americans ages 12 and older. Findings from the Infinite Dial have become the barometer on digital audio and other digital media consumption, and is widely used and quoted by broadcasters, podcasters, online radio publishers, ad agencies, and the financial community.  

About Edison Research
Edison Research conducts survey research and provides strategic information to a broad array of clients, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Apple, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Oracle, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, The Gates Foundation, and Univision. Edison is the leading podcast research company in the world and has conducted research on the medium for NPR, Slate, Spotify, Stitcher/Midroll, ESPN, WNYC Studios, and many more companies in the space. Another specialty for Edison is its work for media companies throughout the world, conducting research in North America, South America, Africa, Asia, Australia, and Europe. Edison is also the leading provider of consumer exit polling and has conducted face-to-face research in almost every imaginable venue. Since 2004, Edison Research has been the sole provider of Election Day data to the National Election Pool, conducting exit polls and collecting precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election.

Noteworthy Nuggets from Super Tuesday

The Edison Research exit polls contain a plethora of noteworthy nuggets of information.  Here are a few additional data points from the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries. 

The Black and Latino Vote
In blog posts after the Democratic contests in South Carolina and Nevada, we’ve wondered how African Americans and Latinos vote would on Super Tuesday. Now thanks to the Edison exit polls we have the answers. 

Three days before Super Tuesday, Joe Biden won among African American voters in South Carolina. He continued to win them with strong majorities in the Super Tuesday states as well – especially in southern states, where he won them with enormous margins. 

After winning Latino voters in Nevada, Bernie Sanders also won them in Massachusetts, Texas and California.  He did especially well with this voting group in California, garnering 49% of their support. 

Voters were also asked which candidate best understands the concerns of racial and ethnic minorities. Among all voters in the states in which the question was asked, Biden came out ahead, and he was the overwhelming choice among black voters. Sanders came out on top among Latino voters. 

Late Deciders 
Joe Biden surpassed expectations on Super Tuesday, and late-deciding voters helped propel his strong performance. With Monday’s endorsements from prominent candidates who dropped out, 30% of voters across all twelve states said they made their minds up who to vote for in the last few days, including 10% who decided on election day. Those late deciders went heavily for Biden. 

Electability 
Last, some exit poll data about electability. As seen in the Edison exit polls in earlier states, Democratic primary voters have consistently prioritized a candidate who can beat President Trump over one with whom they agree on the issues.  That was true on Super Tuesday as well, by nearly two to one: 63% preferred a candidate who can beat Trump, while 34% were looking for a candidate whose issue positions match theirs. 

In eleven states, voters were asked which candidate they thought would be most electable in November. Biden came in at the top, with 37%, followed by Sanders at 28%. 

While the field has narrowed sharply in the last few days, the race for the Democratic nomination is far from over. Next week, voters in Michigan, as well as Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington will weigh in. Both Biden and Sanders have laid claim to working class voters; Michigan’s exit poll data in particular may tell us which candidate has best connected with these voters. 

Click here for more on Edison Research and election polling.