Edison Research Conducts Exit Polls for South Carolina Primaries

On Saturday, February 29, Edison Research successfully conducted exit polling for the South Carolina Primaries on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP). Edison Research interviewed 2,178 voters at randomly-selected voting sites.

Edison Research’s exit polls are used to determine key information from voters, including demographic data, important issues and the “electability” of the various candidates. Edison’s election team captured, processed and analyzed thousands of data points and enabled our member clients and subscribers real-time access to in-depth analysis of the results.

Coverage of our South Carolina voter polls can be found here:

ABC News: Commanding Biden Win in South Carolina Resets and Recasts Primary Race

CBS News: Biden Wins South Carolina Primary, Giving Much-Needed Boost to Campaign

CNN: Joe Biden Revitalizes his Campaign with Win in South Carolina

NBC News: 2020 Primary Elections South Carolina Results

Reuters: Key Black Lawmaker’s Backing Factors Big in Biden’s South Carolina Win

The New York Times:  Winning South Carolina, Biden Makes a Case Against Sanders

The Washington Post: Exit Polls from the 2020 South Carolina Democratic Primary

About the NEP-Edison Research Entrance Polls: Edison Research conducted entrance polls and early voter exit polls for the National Election Pool (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC) during the Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus.   The total number of respondents for both the election day entrance poll and the early exit poll is 2784.  The entrance poll was conducted at 30 caucus locations among 1004 Democratic caucus participants on February 22, 2020.  The early exit poll interviews were conducted in-person between February 15 and February 18, 2020.   Approximately 50 participants complete a questionnaire at each caucus location.

Click here for more about Edison Research and election polling.

About Edison Research
Edison Research conducts survey research and provides strategic information to a broad array of clients, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Oracle, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, The Gates Foundation, and Univision. Edison is the leading podcast research company in the world and has conducted research on the medium for NPR, Slate, ESPN, PodcastOne, WNYC Studios, and many more companies in the space. Another specialty for Edison is its work for media companies throughout the world, conducting research in North America, South America, Africa, Asia, Australia, and Europe. Edison is also the leading provider of consumer exit polling and has conducted face-to-face research in almost every imaginable venue. Since 2004, Edison Research has been the sole provider of Election Day data to the National Election Pool, conducting exit polls and collecting precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election.

Super Tuesday: What Is It, and What Can We Expect?

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are designated by party rules to hold their nominating contests before any other states — but plenty of other states want their voters to have a say in who is chosen as the nominee, and therefore hold their contests as soon after those first four as possible. Hence, Super Tuesday – the date on which the largest number of states hold their nominating primary and caucus contests, and a large number of delegates are awarded.

Super Tuesday receives a lot of attention, and because states from all over the country vote on that day, it can provide some insight into how a candidate will fare nationally. It generally falls fairly early in the nominating calendar, often in March. This year, Super Tuesday falls on March 3, when fourteen states and two other groups will hold contests: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Democrats living abroad and the territory of American Samoa.

It’s the all-important delegate count that will determine the eventual nominee. Delegates on the Democratic side are awarded proportionally, which means that candidates who receive more than 15% of the vote in each state will receive some number of delegates that reflects their vote share in the race.

1,357 delegates will be at stake on March 3, a large share of the 1,991 unpledged delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. California, which moved up its primary this year, is the biggest prize with 415 delegates, followed by Texas with 228 delegates and North Carolina with 110.


Delegates at Stake

Alabama – 52

Arkansas – 31

California – 415

Colorado – 67

Maine – 24

Massachusetts – 91

Minnesota – 75

North Carolina – 110

Oklahoma – 37

Tennessee – 64

Texas – 228

Utah – 29

Vermont – 16

Virginia – 99

Territory of American Samoa – 6

Democrats Abroad – 13


We won’t know the outcome of the biggest delegate prize until 11 p.m. EST at the earliest, when the polls close in California. Bear in mind that sometimes races are just too close to project a winner when the polls close, and we may have to wait until more of the vote is reported to know who the victor is. Polls begin closing at 7:00 p.m. EST; Virginia and Vermont close at 7:00, followed by North Carolina 7:30. Then at 8:00 we will see poll closings in Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, OklahomaTennessee, and Utah. Arkansas closes at 8:30 p.m., followed by Colorado, Minnesota and Texas at 9:00 and California at 11, as mentioned. 

What Could Happen?

It shouldn’t surprise election watchers if Bernie Sanders wins his home state of Vermont, as he did four years ago. In 2016, Sanders won Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Utah as well as Democrats Abroad – we will watch to see if he wins those this year as well. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won the three delegate-rich states voting on Super Tuesday this year – California, Texas and North Carolina. At the time of this writing, polls show Sanders with a lead in California, but the race is closer in Texas and North Carolina.

As we all know, these races can change course in the last few days before election day, depending on news events, debate performances and voters who decide or change their minds late in the runup to the election. And South Carolina will hold its primary just days before Super Tuesday – a race in which polls show Joe Biden with a lead and where he is expected to perform well among the state’s large African American voting population. That may provide him with some momentum heading into the March 3 elections.

What impact could Super Tuesday have this year? If a candidate wins a number of states by a large margin or wins one or more of the big delegate-rich states, it could propel him or her into the lead for the nomination. It’s also possible that one or more Democratic candidates will not receive enough delegates to be able to continue; with a relatively large field still in the race, some candidates may find themselves so behind in delegates that their candidacy is no longer viable. Super Tuesday may mark a turning point in the race for the Democratic nomination, we shall see.

Some Super Tuesday Factoids

The first “Super Tuesday” was designated as such in 1988, when a number of Southern states joined forces to hold their primaries on the same day to increase their influence in the nominating process.

Twenty years later, in 2008, so many states voted on one day that it was referred to by pundits as “Titanic Tuesday”. That year, 24 states held Democratic primaries and caucuses and 21 held Republican primaries and caucuses; many states moved up the date of their primary or caucus, and Super Tuesday occurred in early February. More than 1,000 delegates were awarded that day in each party.

And sometimes Super Tuesday results can winnow the field. In 2016, Republicans Marco Rubio and Ben Carson dropped out shortly after the March 1 Super Tuesday voting.

Will Super Tuesday make history this year? By next week, we will know the answer.

Click here for more on election polling.

Latino Voters and the 2020 Nevada Caucuses

Latinos are one of the fastest-growing demographic groups in the nation and are a large part of the Democratic primary electorate, in fact, they comprise 17% of the 2020 Nevada caucusgoers. The Edison Research entrance polls for the 2020 Nevada caucuses are the first opportunity in this year’s Democratic primary calendar to take an in depth look at who Latino voters are, what they care about, and which candidates they support. Here are some insights from the entrance poll.

Bernie Sanders won among Latinos.

Bernie Sanders’ efforts to win the support of Latino voters paid off: he won this group by a large margin. No other candidate came close to Sanders’ support among Latinos.

 

Many are young, and new to the caucus process.

The Latino population in the U.S. is young (39% of U.S. Latinos are under age 30) and, according to the entrance polls, Latinos who attended the caucuses in Nevada were young. Fifty-five percent were under age 45, compared to 37% of voters as a whole. Thirty-two percent were under age 30, almost double the 17% that age among all attendees.

As they were in 2016, young Latino caucus attendees were strong Sanders supporters this year; 67% under age 45 supported Sanders (similar to the 70% he won among this group in 2016). But among older Latino attendees, Sanders’ support was much smaller, with Joe Biden close on his heels (27%).

In part because they are younger, Latino caucus goers were also more apt to be participating in the caucuses for the first time compared to voters overall. 61% of Latino voters said they had not attended a caucus before; 50% of attendees overall were new to the caucuses.

More than half of these first time Latino voters supported Sanders.

Issues matter nearly as much to Latinos as electability, and they are strong supporters of single payer health insurance

While more Latino voters prefer a candidate who can beat Donald Trump (54%) over one who agrees with them on the issues (45%), Latinos are more likely than voters overall to say the candidate’s issue positions are their priority.

And like all Nevada caucus goers, the issue Latinos most cared about was health care, which led the list of important issues facing the country. 50% of Latino caucus attendees said it was most important, surpassing climate change, income inequality and foreign policy.

Single-payer health care is popular among these Latino caucus attendees; 77% said they support replacing all private health insurance with a single government plan for everyone. In comparison, a smaller 62% majority of caucus attendees overall said they support single payer.

They are more likely to have reported living in a household in which there is a union member. Thirty-three percent of Latino caucusgoers in Nevada belonged to a Union household compared to 24% of all caucusgoers who belong to a Union household. In a state with a large portion of its workforce in the hospitality industry, union membership is a factor in electoral politics in Nevada. Latinos who attended the caucuses were more likely than voters overall to say they are or they live with a union member.

Turnout in Nevada among Latino voters had grown in 2016 but dropped slightly this year

In 2008, Latinos comprised 15% of Nevada caucusgoers, and that grew to 19% in 2016 and was 17% this year.

Noteworthy Nuggets

A few other findings from the Edison entrance polls caught our eye….

Elizabeth Warren made an aggressive push for her candidacy in the most recent Democratic debate. That may have swayed some voters: 16% of caucus attendees who made up their minds who to support in the last few days supported her. But that wasn’t enough for her to win this group: these late deciders also went for Sanders (21%), Biden (21%) and Buttigieg (18%).

South Carolina will hold its primary tomorrow. Joe Biden is expected to fare well with the large share of black voters in that state. In Nevada, Biden won black voters with 38% (Sanders received 28% of the black vote).

While Sanders won overall and among younger voters, older voters showed a different preference for more moderate candidates. Biden won among those age 65 and older, followed by Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer.

Most voters in the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses were white, while Nevada and the upcoming primary in South Carolina offer more diverse electorates. Nevada’s caucuses gave us some insight into the Latino vote – next up, a state in which 61% of primary voters were black in 2016, South Carolina.

Click here for more information on election polling.

Edison Research Conducts Entrance and Exit Polls for Nevada Caucuses

On Saturday, February 22, Edison Research successfully conducted entrance and exit polling for the Nevada Caucuses on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP). Edison interviewed over 2,700 voters at randomly-selected caucus sites.

Edison’s entrance and exit polls are used to determine key information from voters, including demographic data, important issues and the “electability” of the various candidates. Edison’s election team captured, processed and analyzed thousands of data points and enabled our member clients and subscribers real-time access to in-depth analysis of the results.

 

Coverage of our Nevada voter polls can be found here:

ABC News Nevada Caucus Election Results

CBS News Nevada Caucuses

CNN Nevada Caucuses Live Results

NBC 2020 Election Nevada Caucuses

Reuters: Entrance Poll Shows Sanders Ahead in Nevada Caucuses

The Washington Post: Entrance Polls 2020 Nevada Caucuses

 

About the NEP-Edison Research Entrance Polls: Edison Research conducted entrance polls and early voter exit polls for the National Election Pool (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC) during the Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus.   The total number of respondents for both the election day entrance poll and the early exit poll is 2784.  The entrance poll was conducted at 30 caucus locations among 1004 Democratic caucus participants on February 22, 2020.  The early exit poll interviews were conducted in-person between February 15 and February 18, 2020.   Approximately 50 participants complete a questionnaire at each caucus location.

 

Click here for more about Edison Research and election polling.

 

About Edison Research
Edison Research conducts survey research and provides strategic information to a broad array of clients, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Oracle, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, The Gates Foundation, and Univision. Edison is the leading podcast research company in the world and has conducted research on the medium for NPR, Slate, ESPN, PodcastOne, WNYC Studios, and many more companies in the space. Another specialty for Edison is its work for media companies throughout the world, conducting research in North America, South America, Africa, Asia, Australia, and Europe. Edison is also the leading provider of consumer exit polling and has conducted face-to-face research in almost every imaginable venue. Since 2004, Edison Research has been the sole provider of Election Day data to the National Election Pool, conducting exit polls and collecting precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election.

The New Hampshire Democratic Primaries – How They Won and Lost

By Sarah Dutton

The New Hampshire Democratic Primary electorate is overwhelmingly angry with the Trump administration (79%) and a majority is focused on candidates’ electability (63%) over issue positions (33%), according to Edison Research exit polls. 

The final vote tallies for the top three candidates – Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar – showed a close race, and in the final days, a fluid one. There were twice as many “late deciders” – voters who made up their minds which candidate to support in the days leading up to Election Day – this year as in 2016; 51% of the electorate said they decided who to vote for on election day or in the last few days leading up to it, compared to 25% in 2016.  

Among those who decided on election day or in the last few days before election day, 28% supported Pete Buttigieg, and nearly as many – 26% – voted for Amy Klobuchar. Voters who made their minds up earlier in the race supported Sanders.

Both Buttigieg and Klobuchar had good news heading into the New Hampshire Democratic Primary: Buttigieg won the most state delegates in the Iowa caucuses, and Klobuchar was widely considered to have done well in the most recent Democratic debate.  The New Hampshire exit poll provides more evidence of the boost Klobuchar may have gotten from last Friday’s debate; 49% of voters said the recent debate was an important factor in their vote choice, and she won this group with 29%.

Perceptions of the candidates’ qualities also contributed to the strong showings by Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Among the 36% of voters who said they want a candidate who can bring needed change, Sanders was their choice, with 37%.  A third said that a candidate that can unite the country was most important to them, and Klobuchar won them with 33%, followed by Buttigieg with 29%.   

Sanders won with strong support from voters under 30 (47%), the most liberal wing of the party (46%) and new voters (29%). 

Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar took the top three spots in the final vote tally. What happened to two of the other frontrunning candidates, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren?  

Biden’s arguments about why he should be the nominee just didn’t connect with these voters. He has emphasized his foreign policy experience but came in third (20%) to Buttigieg (27%) and Klobuchar (23%) among voters who chose it as the most important issue in their vote (just 11% did so).  

Among the four in ten voters who want to see a return to the policies of his former boss President Barack Obama, 28% voted for Buttigieg and 26% for Klobuchar, with Biden in third place at 15%.  

And finally, Biden did poorly on one of his strongest arguments to voters, electability; among the 63% of voters focused on beating Trump in November, just 10% chose him as their candidate, after Buttigieg (28%), Sanders (21%), Klobuchar (21%) and Warren (11%). 

Warren did poorly with most demographic groups, coming in near the bottom of the field among both women and men, young voters under 30 and voters 65 or older, and Independents.  Thirty percent of white college-educated women voted for Klobuchar, twice the percentage that voted for Warren (15%). As a progressive candidate, she did better among very liberal voters (19%) but came in a distant second to Sanders (46%). 

There is plenty of additional data to mine from the New Hampshire exit poll – more noteworthy data nuggets to come!