Pre-election Polling in Ukraine

Photo: REUTERS / Vasily Fedosenko

Click here to access the original article on Segodnya.

Ukrainians are most worried about the war in eastern Ukraine

56% of Ukrainians will definitely participate in the early elections to the Verkhovna Rada according to data from a poll conducted by Ukraine’s Segodnya television and U.S.-based Edison Research on the eve of special elections. The field research phase of the poll is being implemented by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology.

Respondents were asked the question, “What is the probability that you will go to vote?” Fifty-six percent of respondents said they will definitely vote, 27% will most likely vote, 4% will most likely not vote, 9% will not vote, and 4% gave no answer.

Respondents also indicated their leading motives in choosing a party: 36% said support for social and political initiatives of the party, 14% said support for the ideological foundations of the party, 12% said sympathy for the party leader, and 19% said support for the party’s foreign policy. Twenty-two percent gave no answer.

The leading party among the choices for Ukrainians is the “Servant of the People” (June 15, 2019 – 41.1% and June 20-24, 2019 – 44.9%).

The survey results also indicate that the Ukrainians are most concerned about the war in Eastern Ukraine (45%) and corruption in power (18%). Ukrainians are also worried about the welfare of the population (8%), tariffs (6%), quality of health care (5%) and unemployment (5%). Ukrainians are significantly less concerned about the revival of the Ukrainian nation (2%), the state of the environment (1%) and crime (1%). Five percent of respondents said this was difficult to answer.

Forty-six percent of Ukrainians believe that, in general, everything that is happening now in Ukraine is going in the right direction. Almost 29% of Ukrainians do not agree with this, and another 24% did not give an answer.

79.7% of Ukrainians have a positive opinion of the newly elected President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky.

The survey was conducted by Edison Research via telephone and in-person interviews in all regions ­­of Ukraine, except Crimea and the occupied part of the Donbass. For surveys conducted between June 15th and June 19th, 941 respondents were interviewed (886 by telephone, 55 personal interviews in villages. The margin of error does not exceed 3.2%). For interviews conducted between June 20th and June 24th, 970 respondents were interviewed (910 phones, 60 personal interviews in villages. The margin of error does not exceed 3.15%).

As reported, Segodnya on Ukraine TV is conducting this unique research project in collaboration with Edison Research, among whose clients are BBC, Apple, Google and CNN. As part of the project, the results of surveys on changes in the perception of Ukrainian current events and situations in the country are published at the Segodnya sites, the leader of the information space of the country.

Information on the methodology :

The study, conducted by Edison Research, commissioned by Segodnya, is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older living throughout Ukraine, except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbass.

The study is conducted daily using a rolling, random sample. Data for several days are combined into a common database to obtain reliable information. The field research phase is conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology.

This “quick study” (flash-poll) makes it possible to get an instant reaction of Ukrainians to events during the election campaign.

To improve the accuracy of data, mixed mode survey methodology is used, supplementing telephone survey data with personal interview data in villages (at a rate of 10% of the sample every day).

The study is conducted by Edison Research in full compliance with the company’s methodology and international research standards.

 About Segodnya :

Segodnya is an information platform combining essential news (6 daily news bulletins of Segodnya, Segodnya, and Results with Oleg Panyuta which are being broadcast on Ukraine), Segodnya newspaper, Segodnya.ua website and digital platform.

The total average monthly coverage of the Segodnya brand (TV + newspaper + Internet) among the 18+ audience is 26,100,000, which is 68% of the total population of Ukraine (18+) (without the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbass).

You can watch Segodnya every day on the “Ukraine” channel at 7:00, 8:00, 9:00, 15:00, 19:00 and 23:00 h.

In 2018, the Segodnya TV issues were in the lead among the entire adult population of the country (18+). The share of the evening issues “Today” at 19:00 was 15.2%, “Today. Results with Oleg Panyu” – 17.8%. In total, nearly 32,000 stories were broadcast.

Segodnya recently reported that a new project, “Opposition”, was launched on channel Ukraine . Channel “Ukraine” was the leader of television viewing in May as well as all of 2019, and was also a leader in television viewing in 2017 and 2018. Read the most important and interesting news in Ukraine and in the world in Telegram.

 

Democrats: Worried Sick About Health Care

By Evan Amereihn

The first Democratic Presidential debates start tomorrow. With more than 20 candidates vying for office, each candidate is working to break through the pack, win over voters, and make it to the second debate. As candidates hone their messages, they would be wise to consider the issues that are most important to Americans. The 2018 NEP exit poll conducted by Edison Research points to at least one clear topic to focus on: health care.

According to the exit poll, health care was the most important issue facing the country in the 2018 general election. Four in ten voters said that health care was the number one issue for them in deciding for whom to vote. And when solely considering the Democratic primary electorate, candidates should be even more focused on health care, as 57% of Democrats said that it was the most important issue.

If that isn’t enough evidence, 70% of all voters (73% of Democrats) said health care needed major changes. At a time when Americans are divided on many issues, both Republicans and Democrats agree that health care needs to be addressed. If the candidates have been doing their research, they will come at this issue hard on the debate stage this week and they will compete to propose the most appealing plan not only to Democrats but also the Independents they will eventually need in open primaries and the general election. Health care is the issue (again) this year, so get ready to hear more about single-payer systems, prescription drug prices, insulin price caps, and other potential health care solutions.

 

Marketplace Edison Research Poll

Marketplace and Edison Research Reveal a Dramatic Shift in How Partisans Perceive Economic Data

The late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan was famously quoted as saying “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” In the case of economic data, however, this may not be true. In the October 2018 edition of the Marketplace/Edison Research Economic Anxiety Index poll, we asked a sample of Americans how much they trusted data about the economy that is reported by the Federal Government. 60% said that they at least “somewhat” trust the data, up from 55% in October 2016. And the most extreme reaction, “Do not trust it at all,” declined from 25% to 14%.

However, if we dig a little deeper into this question, we find something remarkable. The October 2016 survey was, obviously, fielded right before the Presidential Election, in the waning days of Barack Obama’s administration. The competing worldviews in the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump could not have been more different: while Clinton ran on a platform of continuing the policies of the Obama administration, Trump ran under the argument that America was not, as surveys frequently ask, “on the right track.”

At the time of the October 2016 survey, U.S. unemployment was at roughly 5%, a number which is certainly below average (i.e., more towards full employment) compared to historical trends (by comparison, five years prior to October 2016, the unemployment rate exceeded 9%). So, with the government reporting “good” news, those who were currently aligned with the administration were more likely to believe that news. However, economic prosperity is never evenly distributed, a fact that then-Candidate Trump used to his advantage when he campaigned in pockets of America that had seen significant declines in manufacturing and well-paying jobs. If you lived in Youngstown, Ohio, or Flint, Michigan, your local economy was not doing well, regardless of what the national statistics said.

As a result, there was a sharp disparity between how Clinton supporters felt about government statistics, and how Trump supporters felt, as we reported back in 2016. Then, the 55% trust/45% distrust by the total sample masked a significant partisan divide. While 86% of Clinton supporters trusted government economic statistics, only 31% of Trump supporters felt the same—indeed, 48% of Trump supporters indicated that they didn’t trust these stats at all, compared to 5% of Clinton supporters. With Republicans and Democrats overall, these differences were still highly significant: 78% of Democrats trusted government economic data, compared to 38% of Republicans.

How you interpreted this disparity likely depended on where you personally identified yourself politically. If you were a Democrat, you likely would have been inclined to cite Senator Moynihan’s quote, above. But if you were a Republican, you would likely have made the argument that the facts on the ground are different; that, despite what the national statistics say, there are significant pockets of America that are economically only getting worse. Both sides, in other words, were demanding to be entitled to their own facts.

This year we had a remarkable opportunity to revisit this phenomenon, once again just prior to a significant election, only now under a Republican administration. As noted above, the degree of trust in government statistics did tick up by five percentage points, and it should also be noted that unemployment today is even lower (currently 3.7%) than it was two years ago. While the percentage of those who trust government economic data did rise modestly from 55% to 60%, that rise once again masks a significant partisan divide.

Trust in Economic Data by Party

The October 2018 data show that the “trusters” have completely flipped positions from 2016. Today, 73% of Republicans trust government data (compared to 38% in 2016) and 51% of Democrats trust these data (compared to 78% in 2016.) This is truly a remarkable shift in just a two-year period. The percentage of Republicans who “do not trust [government economic data] at all” declined from 37% to 7%. And the “somewhat distrust” figures for Democrats rose from 12% to 32%, nearly tripling in two years.

The opportunity to revisit this question under a new administration has given us a profound insight into how Americans from either side of the aisle perceive government communications. While one might have been tempted in 2016 to proclaim that Republicans were willfully ignoring “good” economic news, the truth is that both sides are inclined to believe “facts” when they are presented by their party, and less likely when they are presented by the opposition party. Yet, the underlying data is the same: unemployment statistics tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just as they have been since 1948.

All of which brings us back to Senator Moynihan. Perhaps we are all entitled to our own facts, after all.

Election Day

Powering Democratic Gains: First-time Midterm Voters

A report from Edison Research Exit Polls for the National Election Pool

After any election, analysts and pundits debate the “narrative” created by who won and who lost.  For the 2018 midterm elections, there is a vital parallel story: The explosive increase in turnout over previous midterm elections.

The current count shows approximately 114 million people voted in this year’s midterms.  This compares to about 83 million people who voted in the 2014 elections.

In this year’s National Exit Polls we asked respondents if this was the “first time [they had] ever voted in a midterm election.”  Fully 16% of respondents said so.  This represents about 18 million people voting for the first time in a midterm election.  That’s about the same number of people who live in the state of New York – all voting for the first time in a midterm election.

This means that 60% of the boost in voting since 2014 came from first-time midterm voters (the remainder presumably having not voted in 2014 but in some previous midterm).

The first time midterm voters are extremely young – 47% of those who voted for the first time in a midterm are 18-29 years old; 36% are 18-24 – most of whom were not eligible to vote in 2014.

At the same time – fully 27% of these first-time midterm voters are 45 years old or older.

The first-time midterm voters tilted strongly to the Democrats.  While nationally 53% of the midterm electorate voted for the Democratic candidate in their House election, among the “first-timers” 62% chose the Democrat.  This means that nearly 20% of all of those who voted for Democrats around the country were first-time midterm voters.

 

Related to the race of this group – first-time midterm voters are significantly less white than the electorate as a whole – 46% of first-time midterm voters are non-white vs 28% of the electorate as a whole.

While the significance of the outcome of the elections can be debated, there can be little debate about their ‘success’ from a participation standpoint.  Many millions came to the polls for a midterm for the first time, and most anyone would interpret this level of engagement with a democracy as a good thing.

 

About Edison Research:
Edison Research (http://www.edisonresearch.com) conducts survey research and provides strategic information to a broad array of commercial clients, governments and NGOs, including AMC Theatres, The Brookings Institute, Disney, The Gates Foundation, Google, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Oracle, Pandora, The Pew Research Center, Samsung, Spotify, SiriusXM Radio, and Univision Communications. Edison Research works with many of the largest American radio ownership groups, including Bonneville, Emmis, Entercom, and Radio One. Another specialty for Edison is its work for media companies throughout the world, conducting research in North America, South America, Africa, Asia, and Europe.

Since 2004, Edison Research has been the sole provider of Election Day data to the National Election Pool, conducting exit polls and collecting precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election.  Edison conducts more than 100,000 interviews in a single day for this project. For the 2018 and 2020 U.S. elections, Edison will provide exit polls and tabulate the national vote across every county in the United States for ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News.

Exit poll and vote count: Providing the data that explains how America votes

The polls closed less than 24 hours ago and much of the time in the coming days will be spent analyzing how Americans voted in the 2018 midterm elections.  At Edison Research we are proud that the exit polls we provided to the members of the National Election Pool (ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC) will be the principal information guiding these discussions.

Election day was the culmination of years of planning at Edison as we assembled and organized over 6,000 workers including exit poll interviewers, field supervisors, county vote reporters, data entry operators, and data analysts to collect crucial data in the 2018 midterms. Our thanks to thousands of staffers who stood in rain and wind to conduct exit polls, who stayed up until the wee hours of the morning to report vote counts, and who dedicated their election day to this massive undertaking that provides essential data in the election process.

Starting before the polls opened morning through the polls closing, thousands from Edison’s survey team were stationed at local voting precincts in every state to collect exit poll data from over 100,000 voters. The national exit poll is the only nationwide voter information on voting trends, differences in vote patterns by gender, age, region, and other demographic and geographic groups that is based on verified voters. Exit poll data is important because it is gathered after votes are cast, so the respondents are people who have actually voted.

Exit poll data is incredibly valuable, not only to predict the winners of political races, although that makes for compelling viewing on election night, but also to provide analysis about the issues that drive American voters to make their choices. Edison’s national exit poll data continues to be the only one conducted in the United States. Along with the national exit poll, Edison’s state surveys are providing more in-depth analysis of all the key U.S. Senate and Governor’s races.

After the polls closed yesterday and Edison’s exit polling had been concluded, our vote collectors then went to work, covering over 4,000 voting locations across all 50 states to provide data for the tabulation of the national vote count. These vote collectors worked into the early morning hours today, gathering data from every precinct reporting in America, helping Edison provide accurate and timely vote returns to viewers across the country.

“We are proud of how our polling and data collection guided our clients’ coverage of election night and how it continues to lead the analysis and conversation on how America votes,” said Joe Lenski, Edison Executive Vice President and leader of Edison’s election efforts.