Company News · August 27, 2010
Senator Blanche Lincoln Headed for a Historic Defeat
By Edison Research
Last week Rasmussen came out with a poll showing Senator Blanche Lincoln trailing by 38 points in her re-election campaign in Arkansas. Pollster.com and Fivethirtyeight.com each currently estimates that she is trailing her opponent Representative John Boozman by 32 points. I took a look at those numbers and asked “Has this has ever happened before?”
Well, with a little research thanks to our old reliable references – America Votes and Congressional Quarterly’s Guide to U.S. Elections – I found the answer. No, it never has.
If Blanche Lincoln does indeed lose in November by over 28 points it will be the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent senator in a two-party race since Americans first started voting for senators after the ratification of the 17th Amendment in 1913.
I put together the following list of all of the incumbent senators who have lost a race for re-election by 17 points or more.
Incumbent Senators Defeated by Largest Margins in a General Election:
1914-2008
Year
State
Party
Incumbent Senator
Margin of defeat
1980
NY
Rep*
Jacob Javits
33.8
1932
WA
Rep
Wesley Jones
27.9
1968
AK
Dem*
Ernest Gruening
27.7
1964
MD
Rep
James Glenn Beall
25.6
1938
WI
Dem
F. Ryan Duffy
23.0
1978
ME
Dem
William Hathaway
22.7
1928
DE
Dem
Thomas Bayard
21.9
1958
ME
Rep
Frederick Payne
21.6
1934
OH
Rep
Simeon Fess
20.6
1942
NE
Ind
George Norris
20.4
1948
MN
Rep
Joseph Ball
20.2
1946
MA
Dem
David Walsh
19.9
1934
MO
Rep
Roscoe Patterson
19.8
1946
PA
Dem
Joseph Guffey
19.5
1930
AL
Dem*
James Thomas Heflin
19.4
1980
SD
Dem
George McGovern
18.8
1958
WV
Rep
John Hoblitzell
18.6
1922
NE
Dem
Gilbert Hitchcock
18.6
1978
CO
Dem
Floyd Haskell
18.4
1976
IN
Dem
Vance Hartke
18.3
1976
MD
Rep
John Glenn Beall
17.7
1974
CO
Rep
Peter Dominck
17.7
1956
ID
Rep
Herman Walker
17.5
2006
PA
Rep
Rick Santorum
17.4
1926
OR
Rep*
Robert Stanfield
17.3
1970
CT
Dem*
Thomas Dodd
17.2
1916
NJ
Dem
James Martine
17.1
1934
NJ
Rep
Hamilton Kean
17.0
1916
UT
Rep
George Sutherland
17.0
* defeated in the primary – ran as a third party candidate in the general election
There are a few interesting things to note about this list.
First, the list is actually kind of short – only 29 senators have lost by as wide a margin as 17 percentage points in 48 election cycles covering more than 1,000 re-election bids. That’s less than 3%. When incumbent senators lose they usually lose by small margins. And with the advent of modern polling, when they realize they are heading for a big loss they tend to withdraw from the race first. That is probably why the only recent name on the list is Rick Santorum in 2006.
Second, the largest margin on this list belongs to Jacob Javits in 1980 with an asterisk. Javits had already lost the Republican primary to Alfonse D’Amato and continued running as the Liberal Party nominee in November, finishing third more than 33 points behind. There are five senators on this list who had lost a party primary but continued running as a third party candidate in the general election. It makes you realize what a rare feat Joe Lieberman pulled off in 2006.
Third, the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent senator who had been re-nominated by his party was Wesley Jones, Republican of Washington, who rode Herbert Hoover’s reverse coattails in 1932 to a 28 point defeat. Amazingly, Jones had won election four times before that.
And just because I like to point these things out, there is a father-son combo on the list – James Glenn Beall and his son John Glenn Beall of Maryland hold that distinction.
So on election night the question of whether Senator Lincoln is going to be re-elected is not likely to be in doubt, but you may want to keep an eye on the final margin. It could be a record.
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Last week Rasmussen came out with a poll showing Senator Blanche Lincoln trailing by 38 points in her re-election campaign in Arkansas. Pollster.com and Fivethirtyeight.com each currently estimates that she is trailing her opponent Representative John Boozman by 32 points. I took a look at those numbers and asked “Has this has ever happened before?”
Well, with a little research thanks to our old reliable references – America Votes and Congressional Quarterly’s Guide to U.S. Elections – I found the answer. No, it never has.
If Blanche Lincoln does indeed lose in November by over 28 points it will be the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent senator in a two-party race since Americans first started voting for senators after the ratification of the 17th Amendment in 1913.
I put together the following list of all of the incumbent senators who have lost a race for re-election by 17 points or more.
Incumbent Senators Defeated by Largest Margins in a General Election:
1914-2008
Year | State | Party | Incumbent Senator | Margin of defeat | ||
1980 | NY | Rep* | Jacob Javits | 33.8 | ||
1932 | WA | Rep | Wesley Jones | 27.9 | ||
1968 | AK | Dem* | Ernest Gruening | 27.7 | ||
1964 | MD | Rep | James Glenn Beall | 25.6 | ||
1938 | WI | Dem | F. Ryan Duffy | 23.0 | ||
1978 | ME | Dem | William Hathaway | 22.7 | ||
1928 | DE | Dem | Thomas Bayard | 21.9 | ||
1958 | ME | Rep | Frederick Payne | 21.6 | ||
1934 | OH | Rep | Simeon Fess | 20.6 | ||
1942 | NE | Ind | George Norris | 20.4 | ||
1948 | MN | Rep | Joseph Ball | 20.2 | ||
1946 | MA | Dem | David Walsh | 19.9 | ||
1934 | MO | Rep | Roscoe Patterson | 19.8 | ||
1946 | PA | Dem | Joseph Guffey | 19.5 | ||
1930 | AL | Dem* | James Thomas Heflin | 19.4 | ||
1980 | SD | Dem | George McGovern | 18.8 | ||
1958 | WV | Rep | John Hoblitzell | 18.6 | ||
1922 | NE | Dem | Gilbert Hitchcock | 18.6 | ||
1978 | CO | Dem | Floyd Haskell | 18.4 | ||
1976 | IN | Dem | Vance Hartke | 18.3 | ||
1976 | MD | Rep | John Glenn Beall | 17.7 | ||
1974 | CO | Rep | Peter Dominck | 17.7 | ||
1956 | ID | Rep | Herman Walker | 17.5 | ||
2006 | PA | Rep | Rick Santorum | 17.4 | ||
1926 | OR | Rep* | Robert Stanfield | 17.3 | ||
1970 | CT | Dem* | Thomas Dodd | 17.2 | ||
1916 | NJ | Dem | James Martine | 17.1 | ||
1934 | NJ | Rep | Hamilton Kean | 17.0 | ||
1916 | UT | Rep | George Sutherland | 17.0 |
* defeated in the primary – ran as a third party candidate in the general election
There are a few interesting things to note about this list.
First, the list is actually kind of short – only 29 senators have lost by as wide a margin as 17 percentage points in 48 election cycles covering more than 1,000 re-election bids. That’s less than 3%. When incumbent senators lose they usually lose by small margins. And with the advent of modern polling, when they realize they are heading for a big loss they tend to withdraw from the race first. That is probably why the only recent name on the list is Rick Santorum in 2006.
Second, the largest margin on this list belongs to Jacob Javits in 1980 with an asterisk. Javits had already lost the Republican primary to Alfonse D’Amato and continued running as the Liberal Party nominee in November, finishing third more than 33 points behind. There are five senators on this list who had lost a party primary but continued running as a third party candidate in the general election. It makes you realize what a rare feat Joe Lieberman pulled off in 2006.
Third, the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent senator who had been re-nominated by his party was Wesley Jones, Republican of Washington, who rode Herbert Hoover’s reverse coattails in 1932 to a 28 point defeat. Amazingly, Jones had won election four times before that.
And just because I like to point these things out, there is a father-son combo on the list – James Glenn Beall and his son John Glenn Beall of Maryland hold that distinction.
So on election night the question of whether Senator Lincoln is going to be re-elected is not likely to be in doubt, but you may want to keep an eye on the final margin. It could be a record.