on Exit Polls, and the New Hampshire Vote Recount

Farhad Manjoo offers an in-depth analysis of the facts surrounding the voting disparities between precincts in New Hampshire. Note especially the section entitled “Can exit polls tell us whether fraud occurred?” We have said in this space and elsewhere that it should not be surprising to see voting disparities between precincts–that is why we use the precinct model, after all–and that correlation does not imply causality.

Kudos to Salon for a balanced and insightful take on this issue.