Perspectives, News & Opinions From The Researchers At Edison

Ron Paul and the Angry Iowans

Entry by Tom Webster | Friday, January 4th, 2008 | Permalink

No, it isn’t a 60′s revival band. One of the more interesting stats from the Iowa Republican entrance polls was the metric of voters’ attitudes about the Bush administration. On balance, most Iowa Republicans in the sample were favorable towards Bush, with more than two-thirds indicating that they were at least “satisfied,” or “enthusiastic” about the current administration.

bush_sat.003.png

However, amongst the dissatisfied, and in particular, the “angry,” there was an interesting datapoint. While support from those who were favorable towards Bush was distributed amongst all the candidates, 54% of the “Angry” voters supported Ron Paul in Iowa. This may not be the Republican equivalent of the “Change” vote we observed in the Democratic caucus, but it is a pretty good barometer of the motivations of the voters who helped Paul finish with 10% of the Iowa vote. If 5% of Iowa’s Republican caucus-goers are “angry” with the Bush administration, knowing how “angry” the participants in New Hampshire’s Republican Primary are may be a key to anticipating Paul’s strength next Tuesday night. Based upon the Edison Media Research Iowa entrance poll data, for Ron Paul–the angrier, the better.

bush_anger.004.png

Comments are closed.