Company News · May 20, 2009

Handicapping The Summer Song Of 2009

By Edison Research

It could, conceivably, have been a hard year to come up with an uptempo, feel good summer hit. Dire economic times could have turned America’s gaze inward and songs like John Rich’s “Shuttin’ Detroit Down” and Hank Williams, Jr.’s even starker “Red, White and Pink Slip Blues” could have spawned imitators beyond Country.
Instead, as you look at the available music going into Memorial Day weekend, one either senses a soundtrack for very cautious optimism or, if you’re not willing to go that far, a need for distraction. There’s no shortage of tempo and energy – always a prerequisite in this column for “The Summer Song.” (The other rules, for those who haven’t seen previous columns in this series, are that a song’s radio run has to cover the bulk of the season, and that it can’t be a song that peaked in spring and carried over.)
Following Kid Rock’s “All Summer Long” ride back to stardom last year, there’s no shortage of visible jockeying to take advantage of the season. Rascal Flatts’ “Summer Nights” (not the “Grease” song) is already scaling the Country charts. Sean Paul’s new “So Fine” was released earlier this month, since summer often means Reggae. And Sugar Ray is making an obvious bid to follow the comeback Kid with “Boardwalk,” from the provocatively titled “Music for Cougars.” (It’s more of a left field entry–still brand new, where “All Summer Long” was an obvious hit by last May 20th.)
You can also thank some of the recent changes in R&B and Rhythmic Pop for the additional tempo, as the chugging dance beat that writer/producers Ne-Yo and Stargate helped reintroduce to the genre a few years ago becomes a more common occurrence, most notably in Sean Kingston’s “Fire Burning.” There’s also the trend to different singles for different formats, letting ex-Destiny’s Child member LeToya take a ballad to Urban and the neo-bass-music “She Ain’t Got (S*** On Me)” to Top 40.
We’ll look back at our predictions and choose a summer song right before Labor Day. But here are some of the obvious candidates:
* Lady Gaga, “LoveGame” – Top 40’s fastest growing song at this writing. If this weren’t the summer release, there would be two or three other contenders on her album.
* Kristinia DeBarge, “Goodbye” – A hit on its own merits, but in the first summer that we’ve kicked off in a while without a Rihanna single (one is expected in July/August), this song is also serving as her musical and lyrical proxy. (The recently leaked Rihanna song, “Silly Boy,” is a kiss-off along the same lines.)
* Katy Perry, “Waking Up In Vegas”; Kelly Clarkson, “I Do Not Hook Up,” Pink, “Please Don’t Leave Me” – Individually, the artists have all taken turns dominating the female power pop category. Kelly stepped in when Pink was between hits, then Pink returned the favor. Then, last summer, Perry surprised all comers with our official hit of the summer. And have you ever noticed how the lyrics of Perry’s song make more sense if you sing them as “hooking up in Vegas?”
* Black Eyed Peas, “I Got A Feeling” – “Boom Boom Pow” certainly has the potential to carry through the summer, but this even poppier song, already being performed in their live shows, will likely eclipse it at some point.
* * 3Oh!3, “Starstrukk” – Yes, they’ve got another one on deck. As provocative as “Don’t Trust Me” (and not a difficult dance floor segue into “Boom Boom Pow,” as it happens).
* Flo Rida f/Nelly Furtado, “Jump” – As with “Low,” his first singles were more winter/spring than summer in their timing, but this one is the most uptempo of his three so far and will have the help of Disney’s upcoming “G-Force.”
* Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me” – The most obvious Top 40 fit of any of her “Fearless” singles, and a pop mix is on the way.
* Pitbull, “I Know You Want Me”; David Guetta & Kelly Rowlands, “When Love Takes Over”; Madcon, “Beggin'” – It says a lot about the recent convergence of Rap, Dance, R&B that your “dance hit of the summer” contenders include a rapper reworking a Brazillian-flavored dance record, a Eurodance producer/artist and a Destiny’s Child vocalist, and a Euro-rap remake of a Four Seasons hit that started at Rhythmic first.
* Kevin Rudolph, “Welcome To The World” – Compared to the top of the list, it’s a slow build so far. But there’s the same energy and excitement as “Let It Rock.” It’s hard to believe this won’t ultimately be a hit, or at least take the summer to get where it’s going. I’m also rooting for “Paranoid,” the Jonas Brothers’ change-up record.
* Kings Of Leon, “Use Somebody” – Without a Kid Rock, there’s no uptempo Rock record already in process here. But after two long-running Rock radio hits, Kings Of Leon are finally being worked to Top 40 (which shouldn’t have waited to be asked).
* Metric, “Help I’m Alive” – The one personal pick I’m allowing myself this summer. Started on Canadian Rock radio last fall and has elbowed its way on to the Alternative chart with the help of KNDD (the End) Seattle. Unlikely to end up in front of most Top 40 PDs but would sound great if it did.
That’s not the full list of likely songs that will be hits this summer. There’s a new Jordin Sparks and a new all-format single from Green Day, as well as Drake’s fast-breaking Urban hit, “Best I Ever Had,” but they’re all ballads. Who else might weigh in? Besides Rihanna, there’s a forthcoming Mariah Carey single, a new Shakira (“She Wolf”), Diddy, Paramore, Demi Lovato, and an uptempo Colbie Caillat with a “Soak Up The Sun”-type feel.
That’s a typically long list. As usual, I’m expecting good additions from you, below.

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