An exit poll for the Iraqi Parliamentary election conducted today by Edison Research and EIN projects that the State of Law Party led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be the largest party in the next Iraqi Parliament. The exit poll was conducted in 17 of the 18 governorates with preliminary data from 61,867 voters interviewed at 318 sample polling locations.
The State of Law Party is projected to be the single largest party by a significant margin, but it likely will not reach the 89 seats that it held in the previous parliament. The next two largest parties are projected to be al-Ahrar consisting of followers of Muqtada al-Sadr and al-Muwatin (Citizens Group) led by Ammar al-Hakkim. The number of seats for al-Watiniya led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi is projected to be much lower than his coalition won in the 2010 parliamentary elections when it was the largest single party. The other party lists that are projected to win at least ten seats in the next parliament are the predominantly Sunni parties Matahidoun led by parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi, and al-Arabiya led by Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq, as well as the National Reform Alliance (Jaafari), and three Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Gorran (Movement for Change). The remaining seats are either undetermined or will be allocated to smaller parties.
Due to security issues, voting and exit poll interviewing was disrupted in most of Anbar Province and exit poll data from Anbar was not available to be included in the national estimate. In addition exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations. These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.
About Edison Research
Since its founding in 1994, Edison Research has conducted over 11,000 research assignments in 38 countries. Edison works with a broad array of commercial clients, governments and NGOs, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Gulf News, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, St Jude Children’s Hospital, Time Warner and Yahoo!.
Since 2003, Edison Research has been the sole provider in the United States of exit poll information to ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press, having conducted exit polls and collected precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election. Edison has also conducted exit polls in Azerbaijan, the Republic of Georgia, Cyprus and Venezuela.
Working with both government and commercial clients, Edison has broad experience in the Middle East and Africa. Edison has conducted research projects in Bahrain, Chad, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, Senegal, Tunisia and the UAE interviewing more than 150,000 people in the region since 2004.
About EIN Iraq
EIN Iraq is an Iraqi non-partisan, non-governmental organization formed in 2004 to promote a free and fair democratic process in Iraq. It also serves as a network for Iraqi civic groups to participate in the democratic process. EIN has regional offices throughout Iraq, and its board of directors includes leaders from Iraq’s Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni communities.
EIN has received support from many in the international community and in particular the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the United Nations, and the European Union. However, it’s most valuable support comes from the thousands of Iraqi people who have provided their time and risked their safety to ensure a fair, transparent, and honorable electoral process.
EIN participated in monitoring the Iraqi elections of 2005, the referendum of the constitution in same year, and the 2010 parliamentary elections in addition to the provincial council elections. For the 2014 elections, EIN is conducting an exit poll in partnership with Edison Research. In addition, EIN will be providing election observers throughout Iraq.