The best predictions of the Democratic Presidential
Primaries may have been made way back on February 6th, 2008 –the day
after the Super Tuesday primaries. On that date, a set of predictions was
leaked to Bloomberg News showing the popular vote and delegate breakdown for
all of the remaining contests from February 9th through June 3rd.
It proved prescient again last week when the unofficial results from
Pennsylvania showed Clinton winning 84 delegates and Obama winning 74 delegates
– the prediction from February 6th had Clinton winning 83 to
has not been the only spot-on prediction that was made in this
spreadsheet. It has picked the winner correctly in every contest since
February 5th except for one – Obama claimed the Maine Caucuses
even though this Magic 8-ball spreadsheet had Clinton squeaking out a win.
Almost as importantly, it has been right on the button in the
delegate distribution in many states – the spreadsheet predicted the
exact delegate breakdowns in Rhode Island, Vermont, Wyoming and Mississippi;
was only off by one delegate in Ohio and Nebraska; by two in Wisconsin; and by
three in Louisiana, Washington, Hawaii and the District of Columbia.
Now some might say that this is a self-fulfilling prophecy, with
the Obama campaign investing money in places where it expects to do better to
begin with. However, the Obama campaign is not limited in its fundraising
and seems to be spending as much as possible in every state. What this
says to me is that the campaign had realistic expectations in every state after
February 5th and it created a plan and a goal that the campaign subsequently achieved in each of these states.
So what does this spreadsheet prognosticate for the next
round of primaries on May 6th? Seems like the Obama campaign
is predicting a good day for the Obama campaign:
Indiana – Obama 39,
– Obama 61, Clinton
With its track record so far I wouldn’t bet against the