Infinite Dial 2017 Music Discovery

What We Discovered About Music Discovery

Infinite Dial 2017 Music Discovery

The radio station sweepers say, “Number One for new music discovery.” And while it is still amongst the top ways in which listeners say they keep up to date with new music, AM/FM radio has fallen to #2 behind “Friends and Family.”

That’s just one of the findings from our upcoming Infinite Dial 2017 study, brought to you in partnership with Triton Digital. It is based on a representative sample of 2000 Americans age 12 and older, conducted via mobile phone and landline.

The Infinite Dial has become the report card for digital usage, and the 2017 study will be unveiled via Webinar on March 9 at 2 p.m.

Last year, AM/FM radio was tied with “Friends and Family” as the channel used most for music discovery among respondents who said it was at least somewhat important to keep up with new music. Friends and family holds steady this year at number one, but AM/FM radio falls to third behind YouTube. Pandora is up slightly in fourth place.

Spotify has an eight- point jump  as the item used most in usage for music discovery. Among 12-to-24-year olds, it surges to #3 most-used with a nearly ten point lead over broadcast radio.

The Infinite Dial is the longest running study of consumer behaviors around media and technology in America. The full study will bring new revelations on streaming media, social media behaviors, and anxiously awaited new information on podcasting.

Registration for “The Infinite Dial” is free, but strictly limited to 1,000 and always fills up. Click here to register for the 2017 Infinite Dial.

The Infinite Dial 2017 – Save The Date!

edison-triton-logosPlease save the date for the 2017 Edison Research/Triton Digital Infinite Dial webinar, which will take place on Thursday, March 9th, at 2 PM Eastern. The Infinite Dial, now in its 25th iteration, remains the longest running study of consumer behaviors around media and technology in America. This year, we will continue to measure a number of trends in media usage and consumption habits, particularly about streaming media, radio, mobile media consumption and social media behaviors, and we have expanded our podcasting section. Attendees will learn how the streaming audio landscape has changed, which social media platforms are growing, and how new technology is influencing media consumption. The webinar will be hosted by Tom Webster from Edison Research (that’s me!) and John Rosso, President, Market Development of Triton Digital.

Attendance is strictly limited to 1,000, and it will sell out–so sign up now, and get there early!

Register here for The Infinite Dial 2017!

The Hidden Group that Won the Election for Trump: Exit Poll Analysis from Edison Research

By: Larry Rosin

“I don’t think there’s ever been two more unlikeable candidates,” said Michael Che during the Weekend Update sketch on Saturday Night Live this week.  “Not one time in this election have I heard anyone say: ‘You know what? I like them both.'”

The data from the Exit Polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool show Mr. Che to be correct – an extremely small portion of the voting public (only 2%) told our exit pollsters they had a favorable view of both.  While most voters did have a favorable view of one of the two major candidates – an astonishing 18% of the electorate told us they had an unfavorable opinion of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.  And this is the group that won the election for Trump.

2016-exit-poll-data-favorable-unfavorable

The fact that nearly one-in-five voters who didn’t like either major candidate still came out to vote is pretty remarkable.  This number is double what we saw four years ago (9% were unfavorable to both in 2012) and nearly four times what we saw in the Bush-Kerry match-up of 2004 (favorability ratings were not asked in the 2008 exit polls).

As you might expect, if you had a favorable impression of one candidate and not the other, in virtually every case you voted for that one candidate.  So had those with a negative view of both candidates split evenly, Clinton would have won rather easily.  However, as the graph below shows, this “Neithers” group broke strongly to Trump 47% to 30%.

The story gets even more pronounced when we look at the states that swung the election to Trump.  In each of the cases in the table below, the votes gained by people who said: “I don’t like Trump but I’m going to vote for him anyhow” is greater than his total margin in these states.  In other words – it was the “Neithers” who pushed Trump over the top in these states and ultimately won him the election.

State % “Neithers” Trump Clinton
Wisconsin 22% 60% 23%
Pennsylvania 17% 56% 31%
Michigan 20% 50% 29%
Florida 14% 61% 24%
North Carolina 16% 62% 26%

The “Neithers” are more likely to be men (61%) and are more likely to be age 30-44 than in the younger or older age groups.  They are 78% white, as compared to the total electorate which is 70%.

One of the most intriguing aspects of the “Neithers” is that a significant portion of those who were unfavorable to both Clinton and Trump were favorable to President Obama.  Nearly half of those who didn’t like either of this year’s two major candidates do have a favorable impression of President Obama – and a significant portion of this group voted for Trump.

The 2016 election was unique in so many ways.  One distinguishing characteristic is just how many people had an unfavorable impression of both of the major party candidates.  To be sure, some of these people decided not to vote for either – Gary Johnson and Jill Stein combined for 19% of the vote among the “Neithers.”  However in the end, far more people who liked neither candidate chose Donald Trump and that provided him with his margin of victory in the battleground states.

Behind the Numbers: The 2016 National Election Exit Poll

By Gage - 2012 Electoral College map, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

By Gage – 2016 Electoral College map, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

On November 8, 2016, Edison Research engaged in the largest single-day research project in the world: Exit Polling the nation on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP). A staff of over 3,000 exit poll interviewers, precinct vote return reporters, call center workers, and analysts all across the country helped us provide the sole record of who voted, and why. We collected, processed, and analyzed over 100,000 interviews in a 17-hour period to not only create that record, but also to provide the NEP with the guidance to make the right projections for their viewers and readers.

Whether you saw our name or not, over 71 million Americans watched the fruits of our labor on ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, and NBC–and millions more have seen visualizations of our data in newspapers like the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, and USAToday. Indeed, the entire world was watching: Edison’s exit poll clients also included major international news networks.

This election was extraordinary in both the level of interest and the level of scrutiny on the changing nature of the pre-election polls. Many pre-election forecasts showed a high probability of a Clinton win, only to reverse those projections as the night went on. Because of the exit polls, our clients knew something was up – something possibly very significant – the moment they looked at their screens, and were able to plan their coverage accordingly.

Any kind of survey research involves making estimates of a population–the exit polls are no different–and reconciling those estimates with historical data, statistical models, and of course the “received wisdom” of the professional pollster. Throughout the day, we were able to analyze millions of fields of data in real time to spot potential “surprises” and provide insights to our network clients that allowed them to make accurate projections all night long. For instance, we were able to recognize early in the day that many states that were not presumed to be close would in fact be nail-biters until the end.

While the Presidential Election naturally received the most attention, Edison’s exit polls covered a total of 103 races–everthing from hotly contested Senate races, to consequential gubernatorial battles, to the legalization of marijuana in several states. Today you can see the results of our work all over the Internet: where there is credible data on who voted for these races, how they voted, and why, it came from Edison.

The humble profession of “pollster” has undergone a lot of criticism over the past several weeks. Some pundits argue that polls are no longer effective. We at Edison are proud of the fact that our work covered scores of races and initiatives on Election Day, and our clients did not make one mistake, issue one retraction, or make one incorrect projection. Our exit polls have proven once again to be the single most reliable source of information on who voted and why those voters made their decisions.

In fact, since we began serving the NEP in this role in 2003, Edison and its network clients have never made an incorrect projection based upon exit poll data. We are very proud of this, and of our role in our great democratic process.

Links to our work:

ABC: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-2016-national-exit-poll-results-analysis/story?id=43368675

CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-exit-polls-how-donald-trump-won-the-us-presidency/

CNN: http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

NBC: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/election-polls-nbc-news-analysis-2016-votes-voters-n680466

FOX News: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/exit-polls

New York Times:  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/11/10/exit-polling-popular-vote-have-democrats-challenging-the-trump-mandate/

Sharing the Road: A Share of Ear® Report Presented at RAIN Summit Europe

On November 2, 2016 at the RAIN Summit Europe in London, Edison’s Director of Research Megan Lazovick presented findings from Edison’s Share of Ear® study that focused on in-car listening and how technology in newer vehicles is changing the platforms riders use.

soe-platform

Share of Ear®: % Who Listen to Platform in a Primary Vehicle (Base: Listen to audio in a car/truck)

Click here to view the presentation.

Share of Ear® results are from a nationally representative sample of 8,721 Americans ages 13+ who completed a 24-hour audio listening diary between September 2015 and May 2016.

For more information about the Share of Ear® study visit: http://www.edisonresearch.com/edison-research-conducts-first-ever-share-of-ear-measurement-for-all-forms-of-online-and-offline-audio/