The New York Times Reports On Edison’s Exit Polling In The Republic Of Georgia

We’ll have more to say about our experience conducting Exit Polls for the recent election in the Republic of Georgia soon, but here is some coverage of the election and our results from yesterday’s New York Times. You can also read further analysis in this piece from Forbes. Welcome back to the US, Team Edison!

Edison Research Exit Poll in the Republic of Georgia Conducted for Imedi and Rustavi 2

Republic of Georgia Parliamentary Election October 1, 2012

Final results from an exit poll conducted by Edison Research shows the opposition Georgian Dream with a lead over the United National Movement in the Parliamentary elections in the Republic of Georgia on October 1, 2012.  Edison conducted the exit poll on behalf of television networks Imedi and Rustavi 2.

The final results are based upon 10,485 interviews of Georgian voters conducted throughout the day at 75 randomly selected polling locations throughout the country. The response rate for this exit poll was 66%, and the margin of error is +/- 2%.

The exit poll estimate for the Parliamentary vote by party is:

Georgian Dream 51%
United National Movement 40%
Christian Democrats 5%
Other parties combined 4%

The exit poll shows the Georgian Dream slate performing strongly among voters in Tbilisi, among voters who had made up their mind in the past week, and among more University-educated voters. The United National Movement is doing better among voters outside Tbilisi and among voters who did not graduate from University.

It is important to note that the exit poll estimates the party vote for the proportional seats in parliament. Georgian Dream’s lead in the nationwide vote may or may not translate into a majority of seats in the parliament. Georgian Dream is certain to sweep the ten seats available in Tbilisi but the United National Movement has a small lead outside of Tbilisi and could win more parliamentary districts outside of the capital.

In 2010, Edison successfully performed an exit poll of the Tbilisi Mayor’s race. This exit poll correctly projected the order of finish in the five-candidate race, and the average error on the estimate for each candidate was less than two percentage points.

Edison has been conducting exit polls since 1996 and its principals have been involved in exit polls since 1988. Since 2003, Edison has been the sole provider of exit polls in the USA to the National Election Pool consisting of ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC and the Associated Press. In addition, Edison has conducted or consulted for exit polls in Russia, Mexico, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and Azerbaijan.

Edison Research Conducts Exit Polling in the Republic of Georgia for Imedi and Rustavi 2

Edison Research of Somerville, New Jersey, USA, the leading firm in conducting exit polls in America and throughout the world, will be conducting an exit poll of the October 1, 2012 Parliamentary elections in the Republic of Georgia, on behalf of television networks Imedi and Rustavi 2.

Edison has been conducting exit polls since 1996 and its principals have been involved in exit polls since 1988. Since 2003, Edison has been the sole provider of exit polls in the USA to the National Election Pool consisting of ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC and the Associated Press. In addition, Edison has conducted or consulted for exit polls in Russia, Mexico, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and Azerbaijan.

In 2010, Edison successfully performed an exit poll of the Tbilisi Mayor’s race. This exit poll correctly projected the order of finish in the five-candidate race, and the average error on the estimate for each candidate was less than two percentage points.

For this year’s Parliamentary election, Edison will be stationing trained interviewers at 75 polling locations throughout Georgia. The polling locations were chosen from a random, stratified probability sample of all of the polling locations throughout the country. The interviewers will conduct surveys with a random sample of those leaving each polling place, and they will call their results into Edison’s data center at several points throughout the day. The full survey is anticipated to include approximately 7,500 surveys, although the exact number will depend on voter turnout and cooperation.

The data will then be entered into Edison’s highly refined election software system, where complex computational models will assist Edison’s team in projecting the outcome of the race. Edison will make all results available to the public.

Edison Conducts Maryland And Wisconsin GOP Primary Exit Polls; Romney Declared Winner In Both

On April 3, 2012, Edison polled 1,243 Republican Primary voters in Maryland and 2,095 Republican Primary voters in Wisconsin to determine their candidate choice and the reasons for their preference. Our Exit Polls, conducted on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP), showed Mitt Romney to be the winner in both states, with Rick Santorum finishing second (again, in both states.)

Republican Turnout in Maryland was an estimated 275,000 voters, with 725,000 estimated total voters in Wisconsin. Edison’s election team polled 30 polling locations in each state, and our exit polls were used to determine key information from voters, including demographic data, important issues and the “electability” of the various candidates. Edison’s election team captured, processed and analyzed thousands of data points within the short duration of the primary and enabled our member clients and subscribers real-time access to in-depth analysis of the Maryland and Wisconsin results.

Maryland Republican Primary Results

Candidate Percentage
Romney 49.2 %
Santorum 28.9 %
Gingrich 10.9 %
Paul 9.5 %

 

Wisconsin Republican Primary Results

Candidate Percentage
Romney 44.1 %
Santorum 36.9 %
Paul 11.2 %
Gingrich 5.9 %

Maryland and Wisconsin Primary coverage from our clients:

FOX

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/maryland-primary-april-3/exit-polls

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/wisconsin-primary-april-3/exit-polls

 

CNN

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/md

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/wi

 

 

CBS

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/exit.shtml?state=MD&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=R&tag=resultsR;exitPollsR

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/exit.shtml?state=WI&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=R&tag=resultsR;exitPollsR

 

NBC

http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/Maryland/Republican/primary/

http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/Wisconsin/Republican/primary/

 

ABC

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/04/wisconsin-exit-polls-8-in-10-voters-believe-romney-will-be-gop-nominee/

 

New York Times

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/wisconsin/exit-polls

 

Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/early-exit-polls-suggest-socio-economic-opposites-maryland-wisconsin-share-ideological-tilt/2012/04/03/gIQAQVn2tS_story.html?sub=AR

Edison Conducts Louisiana Primary Exit Polls; Santorum Declared Winner

On March 24, 2012, Edison polled 1,499 Republican Primary voters in Louisiana to determine their candidate choice and the reasons for their preference. Our Exit Polls, conducted on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP), showed Rick  Santorum to be the winner, followed by Mitt Romney in second, and Newt Gingrich in third.

Republican Turnout in Louisiana was approximately 187,000 voters. Edison’s exit polls were used to determine key information from voters, including demographic data, important issues and the “electability” of the various candidates. Edison’s election team captured, processed and analyzed thousands of data points within the short duration of the primary and enabled our member clients and subscribers real-time access to in-depth analysis of the Louisiana results.

Louisiana Republican Primary Results

Candidate Percentage
Santorum 49.2 %
Romney 26.5 %
Gingrich 15.9 %
Gingrich 6.1 %

 

Louisiana Primary coverage from our clients:

AP

 

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/144103606.html

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GOP_CAMPAIGN_VOTER_ATTITUDES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

 

FOX

 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/louisiana-primary-march-24/exit-polls

 

CNN

 

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/la?hpt=hp_pc1

 

CBS

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/exit.shtml?state=LA&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=R&tag=resultsR;exitPollsR

 

NBC

 

http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/louisiana/republican/primary/

 

ABC

 

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/strong-conservatives-turn-out-in-louisiana/