Infinite Dial 2016 - Political Following Via Social Media

One Quarter Of Americans 12+ Follow Politics On Facebook

Infinite Dial 2016 - Political Following Via Social Media

March is an exceptionally busy month for Edison:  not only are we hard at work on our upcoming Infinite Dial 2016 study with our partners at Triton Digital, but we are also the sole providers of Exit Polling to all of the major news networks. That’s right–for those of you who stayed up watching the results of things like last night’s Michigan primary, we were behind the scenes all night, providing valuable information on who voted, why they voted, and helping our network clients make the most accurate projections possible.

So, we thought it might be interesting to “cross the streams” a little, and mix a little politics into the Infinite Dial. Here’s one small “tease” of some of the information we’ll be rolling out as the year goes on: what social networks do people use to follow political news and politicians?

Well, as you can see from the graph above, the top answer with the general population should be no surprise: it’s Facebook, with 25% of Americans 12+ saying they use the popular social network to get information about politics. Twitter is a solid second for political information, which is significant in that Twitter isn’t the second most popular social networking service (more on that in The Infinite Dial.)

This graph is taken from The Infinite Dial 2016, and is based upon a representative sample of 2001 Americans 12+, conducted via mobile phone and landline, to the most meticulous standards in research. These data, like all Infinite Dial data, are projectable to the U.S. population.

For more on podcasting, online radio, social media and more, sign up for The Infinite Dial Webinar, Thursday, March 10th, at 2PM. Attendance is strictly limited to 1,000, and it will fill up–so sign up now, and get there early!

Register today for The Infinite Dial 2016.

Edison Research Successfully Conducts Entrance Polls For The 2016 Iowa Caucus Amidst Record Turnout

On Monday, Feb 1 2016, Edison Research successfully conducted entrance polling for the Iowa Caucuses on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP). Edison interviewed 3454 voters at randomly-selected Republican and Democratic caucus sites. The Republican turnout was approximately 187,000 people, a record for the Iowa Caucus, and the Democratic turnout was 171,000. Senator Ted Cruz won the Republican contest, while Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders continue to be in a statistically close race for the Democrats.

Edison’s entrance polls were used to determine key information from voters, including demographic data, important issues and the “electability” of the various candidates. Edison’s election team captured, processed and analyzed thousands of data points within the short duration of the caucuses and enabled our member clients and subscribers real-time access to in-depth analysis of the Iowa results.

Full coverage of our entrance polls can be found here:

NBC – http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/IA

CBS – Dem – http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/iowa/exit/
Rep – http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/republican/iowa/exit/

CNN – Rep – http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/IA/Rep
Dem – http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ia/Dem

New York Times

Dem – http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/01/us/elections/iowa-democrat-poll.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region
Rep – http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/01/us/elections/iowa-republican-poll.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region

Washington Post – https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/iowa-entrance-poll/

Election Polling - man speaking to people waiting in line

2016 Exit Poll Coverage

In 2016, Edison Research will once again serve as the exclusive provider of exit polling data for the 2016 General Election. In addition, Edison will be providing exit polling data for the following primaries and caucuses:

February 1, 2016: Iowa Caucuses

February 9, 2016: New Hampshire Primary

February 20, 2016: South Carolina Republican Primary, Nevada Democratic Caucuses

February 23, 2016: Nevada Republican Caucuses

February 27, 2016: South Carolina Democratic Primary

March 1, 2016: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont & Virginia Primaries

March 8, 2016: Michigan & Mississippi Primaries

March 15, 2016: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina & Ohio Primaries

April 5, 2016: Wisconsin Primary

April 19, 2016: New York Primary

April 26, 2016: Connecticut, Maryland and Pennsylvania Primaries

May 3, 2016: Indiana Primary

May 10, 2016: Nebraska and West Virginia Primaries

This list is subject to change. For information on subscribing to the 2016 Exit Polls, contact subscriber sales here.

Iraq-Flag

Edison Research/EIN Exit Poll Estimates of the Distribution of Seats by Party List for the Next Iraqi Parliament

May 1, 2014

Estimates based upon preliminary results from an exit poll for the Iraqi Parliamentary election conducted on April 30th by Edison Research and EIN show that the State of Law Party led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be the largest party in the next Iraqi Parliament and likely to receive at least 70 seats.  The exit poll was conducted in 17 of the 18 governorates with data from 61,667 voters interviewed at 324 sample polling locations.

These estimates are for 273 of the 328 seats in the Iraqi Parliament.  The remaining 55 additional seats have not yet been allocated based upon the survey including the 15 parliamentary seats from Anbar Province where security issues made it impossible to conduct any exit polling.  Once the seats from Anbar are allocated the number of seats for the predominantly Sunni parties will increase.

Exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations.  These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.

In addition to the 15 undetermined parliamentary seats in Anbar there are an additional 40 seats that remain undetermined due to the margin of error related to sampling.  These additional undetermined seats will be allocated to the party list based on the modified Sainte-Laguë seat allocation method.

The estimate of seats for each party in the Iraqi Parliament based upon the exit poll are as follows:

State of Law led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (Party List #277) 70
Al-Ahrar consisting of followers of Muqtada al-Sadr (Party List #214) 36
Al-Muwatin led by Ammar al-Hakkim (Party List #273) 36
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (Party List #213) 18
Matahidoun led by parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi (Party List #259) 17
Al-Watiniya led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi (Party List #239) 16
National Reform Alliance (Jaafari) (Party List #205) 14
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) (Party List #266) 14
Gorran (Movement for Change) (Party List #234) 13
Al-Arabiya led by Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq (Party List #255) 10
Al-Fadiylah (Party List #219) 8
Civic Democratic Alliance (Party List #232) 5
Iraq coalition (Party List #262) 4
Diala Hawyatna (Party List #246) 4
Seats allocated to minorities 8
Undetermined seats from Anbar 15
Other Undetermined seats 40
Total seats in Parliament 328

 

Methodology

Edison Research and EIN (The Iraqi Election Information Network) conducted this exit poll on April 30, 2014.

The exit poll was conducted at 324 polling locations among 61,667 voters in all provinces of Iraq with the exception of Anbar. Exit polling in Anbar was disrupted due to security issues that made it impossible to conduct any exit polling. Exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad, and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations. These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.

The polling locations are a probability sample within each Iraqi province. Within each polling location an interviewer approached every nth voter as he or she exited the polling location. The exact number of interviews conducted at each location depends on voter turnout and their cooperation.

Iraq parliamentary seats are allocated based on the Iraqi modified Sainte-Laguë method. Seat estimates from the exit poll are calculated for each party and are based on this approach. All samples are approximations. A measure of the approximation is called the sampling error. Sampling error is affected by the design of the sample and the number of people interviewed. Due to sampling error the overall parliamentary seat estimates, using this approach, differ by no more than +/- 2 (based on a 95% interval) for most parties. This means that 95 percent of the intervals created this way will contain the value that would be obtained if all voters were interviewed using the same procedures. Other non-sampling factors are likely to increase the total error.

About Edison Research

Since its founding in 1994, Edison Research has conducted over 11,000 research assignments in 38 countries.   Edison works with a broad array of commercial clients, governments and NGOs, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Gulf News, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, St Jude Children’s Hospital, Time Warner and Yahoo!.

Since 2003, Edison Research has been the sole provider in the United States of exit poll information to ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press, having conducted exit polls and collected precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election.  Edison has also conducted exit polls in Azerbaijan, the Republic of Georgia, Cyprus and Venezuela.

Working with both government and commercial clients, Edison has broad experience in the Middle East and Africa.  Edison has conducted research projects in Bahrain, Chad, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, Senegal, Tunisia and the UAE interviewing more than 150,000 people in the region since 2004.

http://www.edisonresearch.com

About EIN Iraq

EIN Iraq is an Iraqi non-partisan, non-governmental organization formed in 2004 to
promote a free and fair democratic process in Iraq. It also serves as a network for Iraqi civic groups to participate in the democratic process. EIN has regional offices throughout Iraq, and its board of directors includes leaders from Iraq’s Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni communities.

EIN has received support from many in the international community and in particular the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the United Nations, and the European Union. However, it’s most valuable support comes from the thousands of Iraqi people who have provided their time and risked their safety to ensure a fair, transparent, and honorable electoral process.

EIN participated in monitoring the Iraqi elections of 2005, the referendum of the constitution in same year, and the 2010 parliamentary elections in addition to the provincial council elections.

For the 2014 elections, EIN is conducting an exit poll in partnership with Edison Research.  In addition, EIN will be providing election observers throughout Iraq.

http://einiraq.com/

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Edison Research/EIN Exit Poll Projects State of Law Party To Be The Largest Party In The Next Iraqi Parliament

An exit poll for the Iraqi Parliamentary election conducted today by Edison Research and EIN projects that the State of Law Party led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be the largest party in the next Iraqi Parliament.  The exit poll was conducted in 17 of the 18 governorates with preliminary data from 61,867 voters interviewed at 318 sample polling locations.

The State of Law Party is projected to be the single largest party by a significant margin, but it likely will not reach the 89 seats that it held in the previous parliament.  The next two largest parties are projected to be al-Ahrar consisting of followers of Muqtada al-Sadr and al-Muwatin (Citizens Group) led by Ammar al-Hakkim. The number of seats for al-Watiniya led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi is projected to be much lower than his coalition won in the 2010 parliamentary elections when it was the largest single party.  The other party lists that are projected to win at least ten seats in the next parliament are the predominantly Sunni parties Matahidoun led by parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi, and al-Arabiya led by Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq, as well as the National Reform Alliance (Jaafari), and three Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Gorran (Movement for Change).  The remaining seats are either undetermined or will be allocated to smaller parties.

Due to security issues, voting and exit poll interviewing was disrupted in most of Anbar Province and exit poll data from Anbar was not available to be included in the national estimate.  In addition exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations.  These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.

About Edison Research

Since its founding in 1994, Edison Research has conducted over 11,000 research assignments in 38 countries.   Edison works with a broad array of commercial clients, governments and NGOs, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Gulf News, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, St Jude Children’s Hospital, Time Warner and Yahoo!.

Since 2003, Edison Research has been the sole provider in the United States of exit poll information to ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press, having conducted exit polls and collected precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election.  Edison has also conducted exit polls in Azerbaijan, the Republic of Georgia, Cyprus and Venezuela.

Working with both government and commercial clients, Edison has broad experience in the Middle East and Africa.  Edison has conducted research projects in Bahrain, Chad, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, Senegal, Tunisia and the UAE interviewing more than 150,000 people in the region since 2004.

http://www.edisonresearch.com

About EIN Iraq

EIN Iraq is an Iraqi non-partisan, non-governmental organization formed in 2004 to promote a free and fair democratic process in Iraq. It also serves as a network for Iraqi civic groups to participate in the democratic process. EIN has regional offices throughout Iraq, and its board of directors includes leaders from Iraq’s Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni communities.

EIN has received support from many in the international community and in particular the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the United Nations, and the European Union. However, it’s most valuable support comes from the thousands of Iraqi people who have provided their time and risked their safety to ensure a fair, transparent, and honorable electoral process.

EIN participated in monitoring the Iraqi elections of 2005, the referendum of the constitution in same year, and the 2010 parliamentary elections in addition to the provincial council elections. For the 2014 elections, EIN is conducting an exit poll in partnership with Edison Research.  In addition, EIN will be providing election observers throughout Iraq.

http://einiraq.com/