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Edison Research/EIN Exit Poll Estimates of the Distribution of Seats by Party List for the Next Iraqi Parliament

May 1, 2014

Estimates based upon preliminary results from an exit poll for the Iraqi Parliamentary election conducted on April 30th by Edison Research and EIN show that the State of Law Party led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be the largest party in the next Iraqi Parliament and likely to receive at least 70 seats.  The exit poll was conducted in 17 of the 18 governorates with data from 61,667 voters interviewed at 324 sample polling locations.

These estimates are for 273 of the 328 seats in the Iraqi Parliament.  The remaining 55 additional seats have not yet been allocated based upon the survey including the 15 parliamentary seats from Anbar Province where security issues made it impossible to conduct any exit polling.  Once the seats from Anbar are allocated the number of seats for the predominantly Sunni parties will increase.

Exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations.  These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.

In addition to the 15 undetermined parliamentary seats in Anbar there are an additional 40 seats that remain undetermined due to the margin of error related to sampling.  These additional undetermined seats will be allocated to the party list based on the modified Sainte-Laguë seat allocation method.

The estimate of seats for each party in the Iraqi Parliament based upon the exit poll are as follows:

State of Law led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (Party List #277) 70
Al-Ahrar consisting of followers of Muqtada al-Sadr (Party List #214) 36
Al-Muwatin led by Ammar al-Hakkim (Party List #273) 36
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (Party List #213) 18
Matahidoun led by parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi (Party List #259) 17
Al-Watiniya led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi (Party List #239) 16
National Reform Alliance (Jaafari) (Party List #205) 14
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) (Party List #266) 14
Gorran (Movement for Change) (Party List #234) 13
Al-Arabiya led by Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq (Party List #255) 10
Al-Fadiylah (Party List #219) 8
Civic Democratic Alliance (Party List #232) 5
Iraq coalition (Party List #262) 4
Diala Hawyatna (Party List #246) 4
Seats allocated to minorities 8
Undetermined seats from Anbar 15
Other Undetermined seats 40
Total seats in Parliament 328

 

Methodology

Edison Research and EIN (The Iraqi Election Information Network) conducted this exit poll on April 30, 2014.

The exit poll was conducted at 324 polling locations among 61,667 voters in all provinces of Iraq with the exception of Anbar. Exit polling in Anbar was disrupted due to security issues that made it impossible to conduct any exit polling. Exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad, and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations. These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.

The polling locations are a probability sample within each Iraqi province. Within each polling location an interviewer approached every nth voter as he or she exited the polling location. The exact number of interviews conducted at each location depends on voter turnout and their cooperation.

Iraq parliamentary seats are allocated based on the Iraqi modified Sainte-Laguë method. Seat estimates from the exit poll are calculated for each party and are based on this approach. All samples are approximations. A measure of the approximation is called the sampling error. Sampling error is affected by the design of the sample and the number of people interviewed. Due to sampling error the overall parliamentary seat estimates, using this approach, differ by no more than +/- 2 (based on a 95% interval) for most parties. This means that 95 percent of the intervals created this way will contain the value that would be obtained if all voters were interviewed using the same procedures. Other non-sampling factors are likely to increase the total error.

About Edison Research

Since its founding in 1994, Edison Research has conducted over 11,000 research assignments in 38 countries.   Edison works with a broad array of commercial clients, governments and NGOs, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Gulf News, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, St Jude Children’s Hospital, Time Warner and Yahoo!.

Since 2003, Edison Research has been the sole provider in the United States of exit poll information to ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press, having conducted exit polls and collected precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election.  Edison has also conducted exit polls in Azerbaijan, the Republic of Georgia, Cyprus and Venezuela.

Working with both government and commercial clients, Edison has broad experience in the Middle East and Africa.  Edison has conducted research projects in Bahrain, Chad, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, Senegal, Tunisia and the UAE interviewing more than 150,000 people in the region since 2004.

http://www.edisonresearch.com

About EIN Iraq

EIN Iraq is an Iraqi non-partisan, non-governmental organization formed in 2004 to
promote a free and fair democratic process in Iraq. It also serves as a network for Iraqi civic groups to participate in the democratic process. EIN has regional offices throughout Iraq, and its board of directors includes leaders from Iraq’s Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni communities.

EIN has received support from many in the international community and in particular the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the United Nations, and the European Union. However, it’s most valuable support comes from the thousands of Iraqi people who have provided their time and risked their safety to ensure a fair, transparent, and honorable electoral process.

EIN participated in monitoring the Iraqi elections of 2005, the referendum of the constitution in same year, and the 2010 parliamentary elections in addition to the provincial council elections.

For the 2014 elections, EIN is conducting an exit poll in partnership with Edison Research.  In addition, EIN will be providing election observers throughout Iraq.

http://einiraq.com/

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Edison Research/EIN Exit Poll Projects State of Law Party To Be The Largest Party In The Next Iraqi Parliament

An exit poll for the Iraqi Parliamentary election conducted today by Edison Research and EIN projects that the State of Law Party led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be the largest party in the next Iraqi Parliament.  The exit poll was conducted in 17 of the 18 governorates with preliminary data from 61,867 voters interviewed at 318 sample polling locations.

The State of Law Party is projected to be the single largest party by a significant margin, but it likely will not reach the 89 seats that it held in the previous parliament.  The next two largest parties are projected to be al-Ahrar consisting of followers of Muqtada al-Sadr and al-Muwatin (Citizens Group) led by Ammar al-Hakkim. The number of seats for al-Watiniya led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi is projected to be much lower than his coalition won in the 2010 parliamentary elections when it was the largest single party.  The other party lists that are projected to win at least ten seats in the next parliament are the predominantly Sunni parties Matahidoun led by parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi, and al-Arabiya led by Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq, as well as the National Reform Alliance (Jaafari), and three Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Gorran (Movement for Change).  The remaining seats are either undetermined or will be allocated to smaller parties.

Due to security issues, voting and exit poll interviewing was disrupted in most of Anbar Province and exit poll data from Anbar was not available to be included in the national estimate.  In addition exit poll interviews were not conducted with voters who are part of the Iraqi security forces who voted earlier in the week, Iraqi citizens who voted abroad and internally displaced Iraqis who could not vote at their home polling locations.  These voters are estimated to comprise approximately ten percent of the total expected vote.

About Edison Research

Since its founding in 1994, Edison Research has conducted over 11,000 research assignments in 38 countries.   Edison works with a broad array of commercial clients, governments and NGOs, including Activision, AMC Theatres, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, Google, Gulf News, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Pandora, Samsung, Siemens, Sony, St Jude Children’s Hospital, Time Warner and Yahoo!.

Since 2003, Edison Research has been the sole provider in the United States of exit poll information to ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press, having conducted exit polls and collected precinct vote returns to project and analyze results for every major presidential primary and general election.  Edison has also conducted exit polls in Azerbaijan, the Republic of Georgia, Cyprus and Venezuela.

Working with both government and commercial clients, Edison has broad experience in the Middle East and Africa.  Edison has conducted research projects in Bahrain, Chad, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, Senegal, Tunisia and the UAE interviewing more than 150,000 people in the region since 2004.

http://www.edisonresearch.com

About EIN Iraq

EIN Iraq is an Iraqi non-partisan, non-governmental organization formed in 2004 to promote a free and fair democratic process in Iraq. It also serves as a network for Iraqi civic groups to participate in the democratic process. EIN has regional offices throughout Iraq, and its board of directors includes leaders from Iraq’s Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni communities.

EIN has received support from many in the international community and in particular the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the United Nations, and the European Union. However, it’s most valuable support comes from the thousands of Iraqi people who have provided their time and risked their safety to ensure a fair, transparent, and honorable electoral process.

EIN participated in monitoring the Iraqi elections of 2005, the referendum of the constitution in same year, and the 2010 parliamentary elections in addition to the provincial council elections. For the 2014 elections, EIN is conducting an exit poll in partnership with Edison Research.  In addition, EIN will be providing election observers throughout Iraq.

http://einiraq.com/

Scott Brown's positions on the issues

Could Scott Brown Return to the Senate?

If John Kerry is confirmed as the next Secretary of State, there will be a special election in Massachusetts to fill his seat in the middle of 2013.  Scott Brown could be one of the names put forward by the Republican Party as he has already served in the Senate and won a special election in 2010 to fill the seat vacated by Ted Kennedy.  If he decides to run, he has a number of factors that could help him re-join the Senate.

While Massachusetts is a solidly Democratic state, in 2012 Brown lost to Elizabeth Warren by a much closer margin (53-47) than that of his counterpart for President, Mitt Romney (60-38).  In an election not held in conjunction with a race for the Presidency, the electorate should likely be more favorable to Brown’s chances. And his success in the 2010 senate race showed that he can mobilize his supporters to get out to the polls in a special election.

Some of the data points from the 2012 exit poll also show that Brown is still quite popular among Massachusetts voters.  The first positive sign for him is that Independents supported him.  In the 2012 Senate election, 45% of the voters were Independent and they supported Brown 59-41.  For a Republican to win in Massachusetts they have to win Independents by a wide margin and Brown has shown he can do that, even in a presidential election year.

The second positive sign for Brown is that in the 2012 general election, he was viewed favorably by 60% of the electorate.  This was actually higher than his Democratic opponent, Elizabeth Warren and only slightly less than Barack Obama at 63%.

Slide1

The third positive sign is that when asked about Brown’s positions on the issues, 50% of voters said that his views were “about right”.  This shows that even though Brown is a Republican in Massachusetts, voters view him as someone who is not very extreme in his views.

Slide2

Although these advantages exist for Brown, there are also some negative factors working against him.  The first negative sign is that the 2012 campaign for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts was very bruising.  When we asked voters if either of the candidates attacked the other unfairly, 61% answered that Scott Brown attacked Elizabeth Warren unfairly.  Even with Brown’s high favorability rating, if the electorate views him as someone who attacks his opponent unfairly, it could tarnish his image as a moderate.

The second negative sign is that when we asked voters what candidate quality mattered most in deciding how they voted, 32% said “Cares about people like me”.  Of those 32%, Brown received less than a quarter of their vote.  If the people of Massachusetts don’t think he cares about them, they might find it harder to vote for him.

As Scott Brown weighs his decision on whether to run in a special election for John Kerry’s senate seat there are both positive and negative data points that he can look at.  Special elections are more likely to be decided on who can get their voters out to the polls and Brown has shown that he can do that and according to our exit poll the people of Massachusetts view him favorably.  If he decides to run he will be a formidable opponent against whomever the Democratic Party nominates.